Celik Halat (Turkey) Market Value
| CELHA Stock | TRY 33.54 0.20 0.60% |
| Symbol | Celik |
Celik Halat 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Celik Halat's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Celik Halat.
| 03/30/2024 |
| 04/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Celik Halat on March 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Celik Halat ve or generate 0.0% return on investment in Celik Halat over 30 days. Celik Halat is related to or competes with Qnb Finansbank, QNB Finans, and Turkiye Kalkinma. elik Halat ve Tel Sanayii A.S. produces and supplies carbon wire and steel wire ropes in Turkey More
Celik Halat Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Celik Halat's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Celik Halat ve upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1258 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.97 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.73) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.59 |
Celik Halat Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Celik Halat's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Celik Halat's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Celik Halat historical prices to predict the future Celik Halat's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1004 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6367 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0745 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1181 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.34) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Celik Halat's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Celik Halat ve Backtested Returns
Celik Halat appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Celik Halat ve secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.15, which signifies that the company had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Celik Halat's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.62% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Celik Halat's Downside Deviation of 4.42, risk adjusted performance of 0.1004, and Mean Deviation of 3.0 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Celik Halat holds a performance score of 11. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.45, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Celik Halat are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Celik Halat is likely to outperform the market. Please check Celik Halat's standard deviation, treynor ratio, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether Celik Halat's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.77 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Celik Halat ve has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Celik Halat time series from 30th of March 2024 to 14th of April 2024 and 14th of April 2024 to 29th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Celik Halat ve price movement. The serial correlation of -0.77 indicates that around 77.0% of current Celik Halat price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.77 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.86 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 24.46 |
Celik Halat ve lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Celik Halat stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Celik Halat's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Celik Halat returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Celik Halat has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Celik Halat regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Celik Halat stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Celik Halat stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Celik Halat stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Celik Halat Lagged Returns
When evaluating Celik Halat's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Celik Halat stock have on its future price. Celik Halat autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Celik Halat autocorrelation shows the relationship between Celik Halat stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Celik Halat ve.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Celik Halat
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Celik Halat position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Celik Halat will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Celik Stock
| 0.78 | TLMAN | Trabzon Liman Isletm | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | BRKVY | Birikim Varlik Yonetim | PairCorr |
Moving against Celik Stock
| 0.55 | INVEO | Inveo Yatirim Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | CEMTS | Cemtas Celik Makina | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Celik Halat could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Celik Halat when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Celik Halat - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Celik Halat ve to buy it.
The correlation of Celik Halat is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Celik Halat moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Celik Halat ve moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Celik Halat can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Celik Halat Correlation, Celik Halat Volatility and Celik Halat Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Celik Halat. Note that the Celik Halat ve information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Celik Halat's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Complementary Tools for Celik Stock analysis
When running Celik Halat's price analysis, check to measure Celik Halat's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Celik Halat is operating at the current time. Most of Celik Halat's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Celik Halat's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Celik Halat's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Celik Halat to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Celik Halat technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.