Challenger (Australia) Market Value
| CGF Stock | 8.28 0.08 0.96% |
| Symbol | Challenger |
Challenger 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Challenger's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Challenger.
| 04/23/2025 |
| 07/22/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Challenger on April 23, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Challenger or generate 0.0% return on investment in Challenger over 90 days. Challenger is related to or competes with Metals X, Polymetals Resources, Centaurus Metals, Perseus Mining, and Macquarie Technology. Challenger is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange. More
Challenger Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Challenger's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Challenger upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9073 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.197 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.39) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.62 |
Challenger Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Challenger's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Challenger's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Challenger historical prices to predict the future Challenger's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2684 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5154 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2226 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.368 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.40) |
Challenger Backtested Returns
Challenger appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Challenger secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.22, which signifies that the company had a 0.22 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Challenger, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Challenger's risk adjusted performance of 0.2684, and Mean Deviation of 1.0 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Challenger holds a performance score of 17. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.34, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Challenger are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Challenger is likely to outperform the market. Please check Challenger's market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Challenger's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.83 |
Very good predictability
Challenger has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Challenger time series from 23rd of April 2025 to 7th of June 2025 and 7th of June 2025 to 22nd of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Challenger price movement. The serial correlation of 0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current Challenger price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Challenger lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Challenger stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Challenger's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Challenger returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Challenger has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Challenger regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Challenger stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Challenger stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Challenger stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Challenger Lagged Returns
When evaluating Challenger's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Challenger stock have on its future price. Challenger autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Challenger autocorrelation shows the relationship between Challenger stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Challenger.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Challenger Stock Analysis
When running Challenger's price analysis, check to measure Challenger's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Challenger is operating at the current time. Most of Challenger's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Challenger's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Challenger's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Challenger to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.