ERSU Meyve (Turkey) Market Value
| ERSU Stock | TRY 45.00 3.38 6.99% |
| Symbol | ERSU |
ERSU Meyve 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ERSU Meyve's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ERSU Meyve.
| 08/06/2023 |
| 05/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ERSU Meyve on August 6, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ERSU Meyve ve or generate 0.0% return on investment in ERSU Meyve over 270 days. ERSU Meyve is related to or competes with Turkiye Petrol, Koc Holding, Turkiye Sise, Eregli Demir, Turk Telekomunikasyon, Tofas Turk, and Turkcell Iletisim. Ersu Meyve ve Gida Sanayii A.S. manufactures and sells fruit concentrates and pulp juices in Turkey and internationally More
ERSU Meyve Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ERSU Meyve's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ERSU Meyve ve upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 7.1 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2074 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.99 |
ERSU Meyve Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ERSU Meyve's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ERSU Meyve's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ERSU Meyve historical prices to predict the future ERSU Meyve's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1476 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.5 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.9593 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2039 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (20.94) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ERSU Meyve's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ERSU Meyve ve Backtested Returns
ERSU Meyve is out of control given 3 months investment horizon. ERSU Meyve ve secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which denotes the company had a 0.16% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.09% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use ERSU Meyve Mean Deviation of 6.03, market risk adjusted performance of (20.93), and Downside Deviation of 7.1 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. ERSU Meyve holds a performance score of 12 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0715, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning ERSU Meyve are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, ERSU Meyve is likely to outperform the market. Use ERSU Meyve treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to analyze future returns on ERSU Meyve.
Auto-correlation | -0.66 |
Very good reverse predictability
ERSU Meyve ve has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ERSU Meyve time series from 6th of August 2023 to 19th of December 2023 and 19th of December 2023 to 2nd of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ERSU Meyve ve price movement. The serial correlation of -0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current ERSU Meyve price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.59 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 153.17 |
ERSU Meyve ve lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ERSU Meyve stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ERSU Meyve's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ERSU Meyve returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ERSU Meyve has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ERSU Meyve regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ERSU Meyve stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ERSU Meyve stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ERSU Meyve stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ERSU Meyve Lagged Returns
When evaluating ERSU Meyve's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ERSU Meyve stock have on its future price. ERSU Meyve autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ERSU Meyve autocorrelation shows the relationship between ERSU Meyve stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ERSU Meyve ve.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with ERSU Meyve
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ERSU Meyve position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ERSU Meyve will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ERSU Stock
| 0.8 | AKBNK | Akbank TAS | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | GARAN | Turkiye Garanti Bankasi | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | YKBNK | Yapi ve Kredi | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | TUPRS | Turkiye Petrol Rafin | PairCorr |
Moving against ERSU Stock
| 0.42 | EREGL | Eregli Demir ve | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ERSU Meyve could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ERSU Meyve when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ERSU Meyve - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ERSU Meyve ve to buy it.
The correlation of ERSU Meyve is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ERSU Meyve moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ERSU Meyve ve moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ERSU Meyve can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out ERSU Meyve Correlation, ERSU Meyve Volatility and ERSU Meyve Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ERSU Meyve. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for ERSU Stock analysis
When running ERSU Meyve's price analysis, check to measure ERSU Meyve's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ERSU Meyve is operating at the current time. Most of ERSU Meyve's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ERSU Meyve's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ERSU Meyve's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ERSU Meyve to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data |
ERSU Meyve technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.