Morningstar Defensive Bond Fund Market Value
| MSTBX Fund | USD 9.81 0.01 0.10% |
| Symbol | Morningstar |
Morningstar Defensive 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Morningstar Defensive's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Morningstar Defensive.
| 04/23/2025 |
| 07/22/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Morningstar Defensive on April 23, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Morningstar Defensive Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Morningstar Defensive over 90 days. Morningstar Defensive is related to or competes with Morningstar International, Morningstar Global, Morningstar Municipal, Morningstar Multisector, Morningstar Unconstrained, Morningstar Total, and Morningstar Equity. The fund will normally invest at least 80 percent of its assets in a diversified portfolio of debt securities of varying... More
Morningstar Defensive Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Morningstar Defensive's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Morningstar Defensive Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1411 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.99) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.4132 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.21) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2062 |
Morningstar Defensive Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Morningstar Defensive's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Morningstar Defensive's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Morningstar Defensive historical prices to predict the future Morningstar Defensive's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1242 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0139 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.86) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.78 |
Morningstar Defensive Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Morningstar Mutual Fund to be very steady. Morningstar Defensive has Sharpe Ratio of 0.19, which conveys that the entity had a 0.19 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for Morningstar Defensive, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Morningstar Defensive's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1242, coefficient of variation of 489.52, and Mean Deviation of 0.1027 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0236%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0084, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Morningstar Defensive's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Morningstar Defensive is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.12 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Morningstar Defensive Bond has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Morningstar Defensive time series from 23rd of April 2025 to 7th of June 2025 and 7th of June 2025 to 22nd of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Morningstar Defensive price movement. The serial correlation of -0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current Morningstar Defensive price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.12 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Morningstar Defensive lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Morningstar Defensive mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Morningstar Defensive's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Morningstar Defensive returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Morningstar Defensive has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Morningstar Defensive regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Morningstar Defensive mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Morningstar Defensive mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Morningstar Defensive mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Morningstar Defensive Lagged Returns
When evaluating Morningstar Defensive's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Morningstar Defensive mutual fund have on its future price. Morningstar Defensive autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Morningstar Defensive autocorrelation shows the relationship between Morningstar Defensive mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Morningstar Defensive Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Morningstar Mutual Fund
Morningstar Defensive financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morningstar Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morningstar with respect to the benefits of owning Morningstar Defensive security.
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