Nicholas Ii Inc Fund Market Value
| NCTWX Fund | USD 34.11 0.04 0.12% |
| Symbol | Nicholas |
Nicholas 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nicholas' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nicholas.
| 04/21/2025 |
| 07/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nicholas on April 21, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nicholas Ii Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nicholas over 90 days. Nicholas is related to or competes with Nicholas Fund, Nicholas, Nicholas Equity, Moderate Duration, and Fam Value. The investment seeks to increase the value of the investment over the long-term More
Nicholas Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nicholas' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nicholas Ii Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8551 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1057 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.27) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.77 |
Nicholas Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nicholas' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nicholas' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nicholas historical prices to predict the future Nicholas' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2359 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2538 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0978 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1187 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.41) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nicholas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nicholas Ii Backtested Returns
Nicholas appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Nicholas Ii has Sharpe Ratio of 0.25, which conveys that the entity had a 0.25 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Nicholas, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please exercise Nicholas' Downside Deviation of 0.8551, mean deviation of 0.7067, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2359 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.16, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Nicholas are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Nicholas is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.57 |
Modest predictability
Nicholas Ii Inc has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nicholas time series from 21st of April 2025 to 5th of June 2025 and 5th of June 2025 to 20th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nicholas Ii price movement. The serial correlation of 0.57 indicates that roughly 57.0% of current Nicholas price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.57 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.58 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
Nicholas Ii lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nicholas mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nicholas' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nicholas returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nicholas has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nicholas regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nicholas mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nicholas mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nicholas mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nicholas Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nicholas' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nicholas mutual fund have on its future price. Nicholas autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nicholas autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nicholas mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nicholas Ii Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Nicholas Mutual Fund
Nicholas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nicholas Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nicholas with respect to the benefits of owning Nicholas security.
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