National Fuel Gas Stock Market Value
| NFG Stock | USD 53.10 0.83 1.54% |
| Symbol | National |
National Fuel Gas Price To Book Ratio
Is National Fuel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Fuel. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Fuel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 4.77 | Revenue Per Share 22.218 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of National Fuel Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Fuel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Fuel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Fuel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Fuel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Fuel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Fuel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Fuel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
National Fuel 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Fuel's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Fuel.
| 03/31/2024 |
| 04/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Fuel on March 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Fuel Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Fuel over 30 days. National Fuel is related to or competes with YPF Sociedad, Eni SPA, Ecopetrol, TotalEnergies, Equinor ASA, Transportadora, and Shell PLC. National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company More
National Fuel Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Fuel's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Fuel Gas upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1084 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.69 |
National Fuel Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Fuel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Fuel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Fuel historical prices to predict the future National Fuel's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1007 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2219 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0961 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1251 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.96) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Fuel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Fuel Gas Backtested Returns
National Fuel appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. National Fuel Gas has Sharpe Ratio of 0.16, which conveys that the firm had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for National Fuel, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise National Fuel's Downside Deviation of 1.29, risk adjusted performance of 0.1007, and Mean Deviation of 1.06 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, National Fuel holds a performance score of 12. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.22, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning National Fuel are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, National Fuel is likely to outperform the market. Please check National Fuel's expected short fall, and the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether National Fuel's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.44 |
Average predictability
National Fuel Gas has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Fuel time series from 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024 and 15th of April 2024 to 30th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Fuel Gas price movement. The serial correlation of 0.44 indicates that just about 44.0% of current National Fuel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.44 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.34 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.21 |
National Fuel Gas lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Fuel stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Fuel's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Fuel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Fuel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Fuel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Fuel stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Fuel stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Fuel stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Fuel Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Fuel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Fuel stock have on its future price. National Fuel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Fuel autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Fuel stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Fuel Gas.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out National Fuel Correlation, National Fuel Volatility and National Fuel Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on National Fuel. Note that the National Fuel Gas information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Fuel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
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When running National Fuel's price analysis, check to measure National Fuel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Fuel is operating at the current time. Most of National Fuel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Fuel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Fuel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Fuel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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National Fuel technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.