Novavax (Germany) Market Value
| NVV1 Stock | EUR 5.93 0.04 0.67% |
| Symbol | Novavax |
Novavax 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novavax's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novavax.
| 04/21/2025 |
| 07/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novavax on April 21, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novavax or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novavax over 90 days. Novavax is related to or competes with Moderna, BioNTech, Valneva SE, and CureVac NV. Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prev... More
Novavax Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novavax's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novavax upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.88 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0129 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 32.31 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.13) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.25 |
Novavax Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novavax's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novavax's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novavax historical prices to predict the future Novavax's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0468 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2803 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.50) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0164 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.30) |
Novavax Backtested Returns
Novavax appears to be relatively risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Novavax has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0571, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0571 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Novavax, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Novavax's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0468, mean deviation of 3.41, and Downside Deviation of 3.88 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Novavax holds a performance score of 4. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.66, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Novavax are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Novavax is likely to outperform the market. Please check Novavax's value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether Novavax's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.29 |
Poor predictability
Novavax has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novavax time series from 21st of April 2025 to 5th of June 2025 and 5th of June 2025 to 20th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novavax price movement. The serial correlation of 0.29 indicates that nearly 29.0% of current Novavax price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.29 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
Novavax lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Novavax stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novavax's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novavax returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novavax has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Novavax regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novavax stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novavax stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novavax stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Novavax Lagged Returns
When evaluating Novavax's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novavax stock have on its future price. Novavax autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novavax autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novavax stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novavax.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Novavax Stock
When determining whether Novavax offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Novavax's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Novavax Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Novavax Stock:Check out Novavax Correlation, Novavax Volatility and Novavax Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Novavax. For more detail on how to invest in Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Novavax technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.