Oil (Pakistan) Market Value
| OGDC Stock | 223.28 1.90 0.84% |
| Symbol | Oil |
Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Oil.
| 04/22/2025 |
| 07/21/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Oil on April 22, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Oil and Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in Oil over 90 days. Oil is related to or competes with Adamjee Insurance, ITTEFAQ Iron, United Insurance, Metropolitan Steel, Century Insurance, Unity Foods, and Hi Tech. More
Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Oil and Gas upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.63 |
Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Oil historical prices to predict the future Oil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0563 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0949 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5439 |
Oil and Gas Backtested Returns
At this point, Oil is very steady. Oil and Gas maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0521, which implies the firm had a 0.0521 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Oil and Gas, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Oil's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0563, coefficient of variation of 1869.11, and Semi Deviation of 2.03 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Oil has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.23, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Oil's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Oil is expected to be smaller as well. Oil and Gas right now holds a risk of 2.61%. Please check Oil and Gas standard deviation, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Oil and Gas will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.43 |
Average predictability
Oil and Gas has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Oil time series from 22nd of April 2025 to 6th of June 2025 and 6th of June 2025 to 21st of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Oil and Gas price movement. The serial correlation of 0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.43 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 50.35 |
Oil and Gas lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Oil stock have on its future price. Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Oil and Gas.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Oil
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Oil position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Oil will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Oil Stock
| 0.72 | LUCK | Lucky Cement Split | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | HUBC | Hub Power | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | PTC | Pakistan Telecommunicatio | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Oil could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Oil when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Oil - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Oil and Gas to buy it.
The correlation of Oil is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Oil moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Oil and Gas moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Oil can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Oil Stock
Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Oil Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Oil with respect to the benefits of owning Oil security.