OReilly Automotive (Brazil) Market Value
| ORLY34 Stock | BRL 1.67 0.02 1.21% |
| Symbol | OReilly |
OReilly Automotive 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to OReilly Automotive's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of OReilly Automotive.
| 04/20/2025 |
| 07/19/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in OReilly Automotive on April 20, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding OReilly Automotive or generate 0.0% return on investment in OReilly Automotive over 90 days. OReilly Automotive is related to or competes with Broadcom, Bemobi Mobile, United Airlines, Livetech, and NXP Semiconductors. OReilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools,... More
OReilly Automotive Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure OReilly Automotive's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess OReilly Automotive upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 17.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1134 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1489.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.47) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.09 |
OReilly Automotive Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for OReilly Automotive's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as OReilly Automotive's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use OReilly Automotive historical prices to predict the future OReilly Automotive's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1166 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 20.0 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (4.46) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 1.12 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (8.18) |
OReilly Automotive Backtested Returns
OReilly Automotive is out of control given 3 months investment horizon. OReilly Automotive maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.11, which implies the firm had a 0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to break down and interpolate twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 14.62% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use OReilly Automotive Semi Deviation of 10.9, risk adjusted performance of 0.1166, and Coefficient Of Variation of 875.44 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. OReilly Automotive holds a performance score of 9 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The company holds a Beta of -2.41, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning OReilly Automotive are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, OReilly Automotive is expected to outperform it. Use OReilly Automotive coefficient of variation, sortino ratio, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to analyze future returns on OReilly Automotive.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
OReilly Automotive has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between OReilly Automotive time series from 20th of April 2025 to 4th of June 2025 and 4th of June 2025 to 19th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of OReilly Automotive price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current OReilly Automotive price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
OReilly Automotive lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is OReilly Automotive stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting OReilly Automotive's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of OReilly Automotive returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that OReilly Automotive has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
OReilly Automotive regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If OReilly Automotive stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if OReilly Automotive stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in OReilly Automotive stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
OReilly Automotive Lagged Returns
When evaluating OReilly Automotive's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of OReilly Automotive stock have on its future price. OReilly Automotive autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, OReilly Automotive autocorrelation shows the relationship between OReilly Automotive stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in OReilly Automotive.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in OReilly Stock
When determining whether OReilly Automotive offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OReilly Automotive's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Oreilly Automotive Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Oreilly Automotive Stock:Check out OReilly Automotive Correlation, OReilly Automotive Volatility and OReilly Automotive Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on OReilly Automotive. For information on how to trade OReilly Stock refer to our How to Trade OReilly Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
OReilly Automotive technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.