Provident Agro (Indonesia) Market Value
| PALM Stock | IDR 394.00 4.00 1.01% |
| Symbol | Provident |
Provident Agro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Provident Agro's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Provident Agro.
| 04/05/2024 |
| 05/05/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Provident Agro on April 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Provident Agro Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Provident Agro over 30 days. Provident Agro is related to or competes with Fast Food, Enseval Putra, Hexindo Adiperkasa, and Astra Graphia. PT Provident Agro Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of palm oil plantations in Indonesia More
Provident Agro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Provident Agro's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Provident Agro Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 22.91 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.22 |
Provident Agro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Provident Agro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Provident Agro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Provident Agro historical prices to predict the future Provident Agro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.78) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.16 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Provident Agro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Provident Agro Tbk Backtested Returns
Provident Agro Tbk maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.0465, which implies the firm had a -0.0465% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Provident Agro Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Provident Agro's Variance of 15.99, risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,219) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of -0.11, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Provident Agro are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Provident Agro is likely to outperform the market. Provident Agro Tbk has an expected return of -0.2%. Please make sure to check Provident Agro Tbk potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Provident Agro Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.58 |
Good reverse predictability
Provident Agro Tbk has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Provident Agro time series from 5th of April 2024 to 20th of April 2024 and 20th of April 2024 to 5th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Provident Agro Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Provident Agro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 175.22 |
Provident Agro Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Provident Agro stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Provident Agro's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Provident Agro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Provident Agro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Provident Agro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Provident Agro stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Provident Agro stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Provident Agro stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Provident Agro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Provident Agro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Provident Agro stock have on its future price. Provident Agro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Provident Agro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Provident Agro stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Provident Agro Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Provident Agro Tbk using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Provident Agro Correlation, Provident Agro Volatility and Provident Agro Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Provident Agro. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Provident Stock analysis
When running Provident Agro's price analysis, check to measure Provident Agro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Provident Agro is operating at the current time. Most of Provident Agro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Provident Agro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Provident Agro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Provident Agro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges |
Provident Agro technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.