Refinaria's market value is the price at which a share of Refinaria trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Refinaria de Petrleos investors about its performance. Refinaria is selling for under 2.98 as of the 23rd of July 2025; that is 2.76% up since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 2.9. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Refinaria de Petrleos and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Refinaria over a given investment horizon. Check out Refinaria Correlation, Refinaria Volatility and Refinaria Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Refinaria.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Refinaria's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Refinaria is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Refinaria's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Refinaria 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Refinaria's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Refinaria.
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04/24/2025
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In 3 months and 1 day
07/23/2025
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If you would invest 0.00 in Refinaria on April 24, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Refinaria de Petrleos or generate 0.0% return on investment in Refinaria over 90 days. Refinaria is related to or competes with Lupatech, Recrusul, PDG Realty, OSX Brasil, and Paranapanema. Refinaria de Petrleos de Manguinhos S.A. refines petroleum products in Brazil More
Refinaria Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Refinaria's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Refinaria de Petrleos upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Refinaria's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Refinaria's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Refinaria historical prices to predict the future Refinaria's volatility.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Refinaria. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Refinaria's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Refinaria's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Refinaria de Petrleos.
Refinaria de Petrleos Backtested Returns
Currently, Refinaria de Petrleos is moderately volatile. Refinaria de Petrleos maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0444, which implies the firm had a 0.0444 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Refinaria de Petrleos, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Refinaria's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0447, semi deviation of 1.49, and Coefficient Of Variation of 2253.96 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.082%. Refinaria has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.11, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Refinaria's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Refinaria is expected to be smaller as well. Refinaria de Petrleos right now holds a risk of 1.85%. Please check Refinaria de Petrleos jensen alpha, sortino ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Refinaria de Petrleos will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation
-0.18
Insignificant reverse predictability
Refinaria de Petrleos has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Refinaria time series from 24th of April 2025 to 8th of June 2025 and 8th of June 2025 to 23rd of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Refinaria de Petrleos price movement. The serial correlation of -0.18 indicates that over 18.0% of current Refinaria price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.18
Spearman Rank Test
-0.33
Residual Average
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Price Variance
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Refinaria de Petrleos lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Refinaria stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Refinaria's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Refinaria returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Refinaria has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Refinaria regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Refinaria stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Refinaria stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Refinaria stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Refinaria Lagged Returns
When evaluating Refinaria's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Refinaria stock have on its future price. Refinaria autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Refinaria autocorrelation shows the relationship between Refinaria stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Refinaria de Petrleos.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When running Refinaria's price analysis, check to measure Refinaria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Refinaria is operating at the current time. Most of Refinaria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Refinaria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Refinaria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Refinaria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.