Vivara Participaes (Brazil) Market Value
| VIVA3 Stock | BRL 23.01 0.62 2.77% |
| Symbol | Vivara |
Vivara Participaes 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vivara Participaes' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vivara Participaes.
| 03/30/2024 |
| 04/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vivara Participaes on March 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vivara Participaes SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vivara Participaes over 30 days. Vivara Participaes is related to or competes with Arezzo Indstria, Lojas Renner, Fleury SA, Movida Participaes, and Localiza Rent. Vivara Participaes S.A. operates a chain of jewelry stores More
Vivara Participaes Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vivara Participaes' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vivara Participaes SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.25) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.05 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.77 |
Vivara Participaes Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vivara Participaes' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vivara Participaes' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vivara Participaes historical prices to predict the future Vivara Participaes' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.68) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.95) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.61) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vivara Participaes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vivara Participaes Backtested Returns
Vivara Participaes owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.2, which indicates the firm had a -0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Vivara Participaes SA exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Vivara Participaes' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13), coefficient of variation of (456.57), and Variance of 7.34 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.98, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Vivara Participaes returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vivara Participaes is expected to follow. Vivara Participaes has an expected return of -0.56%. Please make sure to validate Vivara Participaes skewness, accumulation distribution, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and daily balance of power , to decide if Vivara Participaes performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.79 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Vivara Participaes SA has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vivara Participaes time series from 30th of March 2024 to 14th of April 2024 and 14th of April 2024 to 29th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vivara Participaes price movement. The serial correlation of -0.79 indicates that around 79.0% of current Vivara Participaes price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.79 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.48 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.12 |
Vivara Participaes lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vivara Participaes stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vivara Participaes' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vivara Participaes returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vivara Participaes has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vivara Participaes regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vivara Participaes stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vivara Participaes stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vivara Participaes stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vivara Participaes Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vivara Participaes' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vivara Participaes stock have on its future price. Vivara Participaes autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vivara Participaes autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vivara Participaes stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vivara Participaes SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Vivara Participaes Correlation, Vivara Participaes Volatility and Vivara Participaes Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vivara Participaes. Note that the Vivara Participaes information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vivara Participaes' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Vivara Stock analysis
When running Vivara Participaes' price analysis, check to measure Vivara Participaes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vivara Participaes is operating at the current time. Most of Vivara Participaes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vivara Participaes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vivara Participaes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vivara Participaes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Vivara Participaes technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.