Air Products And Stock Price Prediction
| APD Stock | USD 238.94 2.86 1.21% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
33
Oversold | Overbought |
Air Products stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Air Products shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Air Products' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Air Products and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Air Products' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Air Products and, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Air Products' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.062 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.16 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.31 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.43 | Wall Street Target Price 268.35 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Air Products based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Air stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Air Products over a specific investment horizon. Using Air Products hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air Products and from the perspective of Air Products response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Air Products using Air Products' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Air using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Air Products' stock price.
Air Products Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Air Products' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Air. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Air Products stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Air Products may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Air Products and may potentially protect profits, hedge Air Products with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 267.0989 | Short Percent 0.012 | Short Ratio 1.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 236.8206 |
Air Products Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Air Products' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Air. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Air can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Air Products and. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Air Products' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Air Products.
Air Products Implied Volatility | 40.3 |
Air Products' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Air Products and stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Air Products' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Air Products stock will not fluctuate a lot when Air Products' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Air Products. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Air Products to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Air because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Air Products after-hype prediction price | USD 236.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Air contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Air Products and will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.52% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Air Products trading at USD 238.94, that is roughly USD 6.02 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Air Products' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Air Products and options at the current volatility level of 40.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Air |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Products' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air Products After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Air Products at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air Products or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Air Products, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Air Products Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Air Products' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air Products' historical news coverage. Air Products' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 233.74 and 238.38, respectively. We have considered Air Products' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Air Products is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air Products is based on 3 months time horizon.
Air Products Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air Products is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air Products backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air Products, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.32 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 12 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
238.94 | 236.06 | 0.01 |
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Air Products Hype Timeline
On the 29th of April Air Products is traded for 238.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. Air is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 236.06. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Air Products is about 163.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 239.10. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Air Products was presently reported as 66.91. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.37. Air Products recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of March 2024. The firm had 1081:1000 split on the 3rd of October 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Air Products Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Air Products Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Air Products' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air Products' future price movements. Getting to know how Air Products' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air Products may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SHW | Sherwin Williams Co | (0.63) | 10 per month | 1.36 | (0.04) | 1.81 | (1.78) | 6.43 | |
| KWR | Quaker Chemical | 3.47 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.10 | (1.88) | 6.68 |
Air Products Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Air Products Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Air Products stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Air Products and, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Air Products based on analysis of Air Products hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Air Products's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Air Products's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0268 | 0.0238 | 0.0214 | 0.0187 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.07 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.72 |
Story Coverage note for Air Products
The number of cover stories for Air Products depends on current market conditions and Air Products' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Air Products is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Air Products' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Air Products Short Properties
Air Products' future price predictability will typically decrease when Air Products' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Air Products and often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Air Products' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Products' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 222.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Check out Air Products Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for Air Stock analysis
When running Air Products' price analysis, check to measure Air Products' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air Products is operating at the current time. Most of Air Products' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air Products' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air Products' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air Products to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Air Products' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Air Products. If investors know Air will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Air Products listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.062 | Dividend Share 7 | Earnings Share 10.46 | Revenue Per Share 55.864 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Air Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Air that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Air Products' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Air Products' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Air Products' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Air Products' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Air Products' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Air Products is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Air Products' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.