Edison Opto Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| 3591 Stock | TWD 24.45 0.60 2.52% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Edison Opto Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.45. Edison Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Edison Opto stock prices and determine the direction of Edison Opto Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Edison Opto's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Edison Opto to cross-verify your projections. Edison |
Most investors in Edison Opto cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Edison Opto's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Edison Opto's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Edison Opto polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Edison Opto Corp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Edison Opto Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Edison Opto Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Edison Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Edison Opto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Edison Opto Stock Forecast Pattern
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Edison Opto Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Edison Opto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Edison Opto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.53 and 25.32, respectively. We have considered Edison Opto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Edison Opto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Edison Opto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0782 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4992 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0197 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.4519 |
Predictive Modules for Edison Opto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Edison Opto Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Edison Opto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Edison Opto
For every potential investor in Edison, whether a beginner or expert, Edison Opto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Edison Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Edison. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Edison Opto's price trends.Edison Opto Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Edison Opto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Edison Opto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Edison Opto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Edison Opto Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Edison Opto's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Edison Opto's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Edison Opto Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Edison Opto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Edison Opto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Edison Opto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Edison Opto Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Edison Opto Risk Indicators
The analysis of Edison Opto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Edison Opto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting edison stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Edison Opto to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Edison Stock analysis
When running Edison Opto's price analysis, check to measure Edison Opto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Edison Opto is operating at the current time. Most of Edison Opto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Edison Opto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Edison Opto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Edison Opto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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