Adagio Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ADGM Stock | 1.07 0.04 3.88% |
Adagio Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Adagio Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adagio Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adagio Medical fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Adagio Medical's share price is at 52. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Adagio Medical, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (1.67) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.99) | Wall Street Target Price 4 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.756 |
Using Adagio Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adagio Medical Holdings from the perspective of Adagio Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adagio Medical Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.27. Adagio Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 1.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adagio Medical to cross-verify your projections. Adagio Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adagio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adagio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adagio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Adagio Medical Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Adagio Medical's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 23.7 M | Current Value 12.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 5.5 M |
Adagio Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adagio Medical Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adagio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adagio Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adagio Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adagio Medical | Adagio Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adagio Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adagio Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adagio Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 9.76, respectively. We have considered Adagio Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adagio Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adagio Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2972 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0372 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0389 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.2694 |
Predictive Modules for Adagio Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adagio Medical Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Adagio Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adagio Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adagio Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Adagio Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adagio Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adagio Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adagio Medical's historical news coverage. Adagio Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 9.60, respectively. We have considered Adagio Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adagio Medical is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adagio Medical Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adagio Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Adagio Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adagio Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adagio Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 8.60 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.07 | 1.00 | 2.91 |
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Adagio Medical Hype Timeline
Adagio Medical Holdings is presently traded for 1.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Adagio is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.0. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.91%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Adagio Medical is about 27741.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.07. About 68.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.46. Adagio Medical Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adagio Medical to cross-verify your projections.Adagio Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adagio Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adagio Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Adagio Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adagio Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| COCH | Envoy Medical | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.94 | (6.98) | 26.25 | |
| ALUR | Allurion Technologies | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 16.54 | (10.32) | 40.95 | |
| CTXR | Citius Pharmaceuticals | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 10.59 | (10.53) | 38.23 | |
| NVNO | enVVeno Medical Corp | 0.17 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.13 | (10.09) | 41.30 | |
| CODX | Co Diagnostics | (0.73) | 10 per month | 13.88 | 0.04 | 13.38 | (20.90) | 319.85 | |
| ATHA | Athira Pharma | (0.10) | 4 per month | 3.40 | 0.11 | 7.83 | (6.40) | 70.38 | |
| IRIX | IRIDEX | 0.05 | 9 per month | 4.67 | 0.11 | 7.89 | (5.15) | 35.45 | |
| LPTX | LPTX Old | 0.01 | 9 per month | 6.90 | 0.14 | 25.00 | (9.43) | 65.13 | |
| VSEE | VSee Health | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.33 | (12.24) | 87.63 | |
| VVOS | Vivos Therapeutics | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 7.18 | (7.11) | 31.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adagio Medical
For every potential investor in Adagio, whether a beginner or expert, Adagio Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adagio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adagio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adagio Medical's price trends.Adagio Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adagio Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adagio Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adagio Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adagio Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adagio Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adagio Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adagio Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adagio Medical Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adagio Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adagio Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adagio Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adagio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.35 | |||
| Variance | 69.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adagio Medical
The number of cover stories for Adagio Medical depends on current market conditions and Adagio Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adagio Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adagio Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Adagio Medical Short Properties
Adagio Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Adagio Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Adagio Medical Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Adagio Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adagio Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adagio Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adagio Medical. If investors know Adagio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adagio Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.46) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.756 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Adagio Medical Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adagio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adagio Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adagio Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adagio Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adagio Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adagio Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adagio Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adagio Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.