Argha Karya Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AKPI Stock | IDR 600.00 35.00 5.51% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Argha Karya Prima on the next trading day is expected to be 617.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 748.34. Argha Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Argha Karya stock prices and determine the direction of Argha Karya Prima's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Argha Karya's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Argha Karya to cross-verify your projections. Argha |
Most investors in Argha Karya cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Argha Karya's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Argha Karya's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Argha Karya polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Argha Karya Prima as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Argha Karya Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Argha Karya Prima on the next trading day is expected to be 617.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.27, mean absolute percentage error of 243.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 748.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Argha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Argha Karya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Argha Karya Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Argha Karya | Argha Karya Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Argha Karya Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Argha Karya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Argha Karya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 614.53 and 619.54, respectively. We have considered Argha Karya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Argha Karya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Argha Karya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.6039 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.2679 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 748.3415 |
Predictive Modules for Argha Karya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argha Karya Prima. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Argha Karya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Argha Karya
For every potential investor in Argha, whether a beginner or expert, Argha Karya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Argha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Argha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Argha Karya's price trends.Argha Karya Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Argha Karya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Argha Karya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Argha Karya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Argha Karya Prima Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Argha Karya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Argha Karya's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Argha Karya Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Argha Karya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Argha Karya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Argha Karya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Argha Karya Prima entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0551 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 617.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 611.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 35.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (35.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (35.00) |
Argha Karya Risk Indicators
The analysis of Argha Karya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Argha Karya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting argha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Argha Karya
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Argha Karya position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Argha Karya will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Argha Stock
| 0.65 | BRPT | Barito Pacific Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | GDST | Gunawan Dianjaya Steel | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | ALMI | Alumindo Light Metal | PairCorr |
Moving against Argha Stock
| 0.77 | SURE | Super Energy Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | AGII | Aneka Gas Industri | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | CLAY | Citra Putra Realty | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Argha Karya could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Argha Karya when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Argha Karya - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Argha Karya Prima to buy it.
The correlation of Argha Karya is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Argha Karya moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Argha Karya Prima moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Argha Karya can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Argha Karya to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Argha Stock analysis
When running Argha Karya's price analysis, check to measure Argha Karya's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Argha Karya is operating at the current time. Most of Argha Karya's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Argha Karya's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Argha Karya's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Argha Karya to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance |