Ardent Health Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ARDT Stock | 8.25 0.06 0.72% |
Ardent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Ardent Health's share price is approaching 31. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ardent Health, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ardent Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ardent Health Partners from the perspective of Ardent Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ardent Health Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 7.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.15. Ardent Health after-hype prediction price | USD 8.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardent Health to cross-verify your projections. Ardent Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ardent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ardent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ardent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ardent Health Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ardent Health Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 7.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23, mean absolute percentage error of 2.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ardent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ardent Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ardent Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ardent Health | Ardent Health Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ardent Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ardent Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ardent Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.49 and 12.25, respectively. We have considered Ardent Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ardent Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ardent Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9535 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.232 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1219 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 75.151 |
Predictive Modules for Ardent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardent Health Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ardent Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ardent Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ardent Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ardent Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ardent Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ardent Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ardent Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ardent Health's historical news coverage. Ardent Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.37 and 13.13, respectively. We have considered Ardent Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ardent Health is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ardent Health Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ardent Health Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ardent Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ardent Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ardent Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.78 | 4.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.25 | 8.25 | 0.00 |
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Ardent Health Hype Timeline
Ardent Health Partners is presently traded for 8.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ardent is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.78%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ardent Health is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.25. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ardent Health Partners had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardent Health to cross-verify your projections.Ardent Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ardent Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ardent Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Ardent Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ardent Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.71 | (7.74) | 33.41 | |
| BKD | Brookdale Senior Living | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.52 | 0.30 | 4.34 | (1.70) | 9.68 | |
| ADUS | Addus HomeCare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.84 | (3.16) | 11.54 | |
| NHC | National HealthCare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.13 | 2.84 | (2.20) | 9.28 | |
| MD | Mednax Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.1 | 3.16 | (3.57) | 28.51 | |
| AVAH | Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.50 | (3.08) | 16.94 | |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.05 | 2.25 | (1.70) | 13.50 | |
| LFST | Lifestance Health Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.15 | 3.26 | (2.55) | 32.81 | |
| IBRX | Immunitybio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.26 | 0.21 | 11.16 | (7.49) | 51.87 | |
| ASTH | Astrana Health | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.14 | (7.67) | 31.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ardent Health
For every potential investor in Ardent, whether a beginner or expert, Ardent Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ardent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ardent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ardent Health's price trends.Ardent Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ardent Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ardent Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ardent Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ardent Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ardent Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ardent Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ardent Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ardent Health Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ardent Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ardent Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ardent Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ardent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.88 | |||
| Variance | 23.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ardent Health
The number of cover stories for Ardent Health depends on current market conditions and Ardent Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ardent Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ardent Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ardent Health Short Properties
Ardent Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ardent Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ardent Health Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ardent Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ardent Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 556.8 M |
Additional Tools for Ardent Stock Analysis
When running Ardent Health's price analysis, check to measure Ardent Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardent Health is operating at the current time. Most of Ardent Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardent Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardent Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardent Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.