Arena Group Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AREN Stock | USD 3.99 0.05 1.24% |
Arena Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Arena Group's share price is approaching 41. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arena Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Arena Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arena Group Holdings from the perspective of Arena Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Arena Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.99. Arena Group after-hype prediction price | USD 3.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Group to cross-verify your projections. Arena Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arena Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Arena Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arena Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arena Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arena Group | Arena Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arena Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arena Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arena Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 7.87, respectively. We have considered Arena Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arena Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arena Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1093 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2785 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0639 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.9908 |
Predictive Modules for Arena Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arena Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arena Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arena Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arena Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arena Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arena Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arena Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arena Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arena Group's historical news coverage. Arena Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.20 and 8.03, respectively. We have considered Arena Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arena Group is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arena Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arena Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arena Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arena Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arena Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.53 | 4.04 | 0.49 | 0.23 | 11 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.99 | 3.99 | 0.00 |
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Arena Group Hype Timeline
Arena Group Holdings is presently traded for 3.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.23. Arena is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.53%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arena Group is about 930.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.76. About 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of August 2019. Arena Group Holdings had 1:22 split on the 9th of February 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Group to cross-verify your projections.Arena Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arena Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arena Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Arena Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arena Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UPXI | Upexi Inc | 1.09 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 11.51 | (10.16) | 30.97 | |
| TRVG | Trivago NV | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.23 | (4.37) | 11.25 | |
| NEXN | Nexxen International | (3.60) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.08 | (3.09) | 24.48 | |
| THRY | Thryv Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 4.32 | (6.80) | 30.17 | |
| TRUE | TrueCar | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.81 | 0.01 | 4.74 | (3.48) | 12.10 | |
| CURI | Curiositystream | (0.05) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.99 | (6.20) | 33.31 | |
| SSP | E W Scripps | (1.55) | 2 per month | 3.72 | 0.1 | 7.52 | (6.60) | 53.49 | |
| ATNI | ATN International | 0.08 | 7 per month | 1.62 | 0.20 | 5.16 | (2.94) | 22.28 | |
| RDCM | Radcom | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.05 | (2.72) | 10.91 | |
| ZH | Zhihu Inc ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.10 | (4.82) | 21.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arena Group
For every potential investor in Arena, whether a beginner or expert, Arena Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arena Group's price trends.Arena Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arena Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arena Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arena Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arena Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arena Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arena Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arena Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arena Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arena Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arena Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arena Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arena stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.04 | |||
| Variance | 16.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arena Group
The number of cover stories for Arena Group depends on current market conditions and Arena Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arena Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arena Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arena Group Short Properties
Arena Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arena Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arena Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arena Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arena Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arena Group. If investors know Arena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arena Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Arena Group Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arena Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arena Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arena Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arena Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arena Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arena Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arena Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.