Array Technologies Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ARRY Stock  USD 11.15  0.62  5.89%   
Array Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Array Technologies' stock price is slightly above 60. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Array, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 60

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Array Technologies' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Array Technologies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Array Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Array Technologies from the perspective of Array Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Array Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 10.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.93.

Array Technologies after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Array Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Array Stock please use our How to Invest in Array Technologies guide.

Array Technologies Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Array price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Array using various technical indicators. When you analyze Array charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Array Technologies price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Array Technologies Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Array Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 10.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Array Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Array Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Array Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Array Technologies  Array Technologies Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Array Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Array Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Array Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.14 and 14.91, respectively. We have considered Array Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.15
10.03
Expected Value
14.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Array Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Array Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5203
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6383
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0755
SAESum of the absolute errors38.934
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Array Technologies historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Array Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Array Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.2711.1516.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.558.4313.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.669.7910.93
Details

Array Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Array Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Array Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Array Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Array Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Array Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Array Technologies' historical news coverage. Array Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.27 and 16.03, respectively. We have considered Array Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.15
11.15
After-hype Price
16.03
Upside
Array Technologies is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Array Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.

Array Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Array Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Array Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Array Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.51 
4.88
 0.00  
  0.06 
0 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.15
11.15
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Array Technologies Hype Timeline

Array Technologies is presently traded for 11.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.06. Array is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.51%. %. The volatility of related hype on Array Technologies is about 3842.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.09. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.83. Array Technologies recorded a loss per share of 0.61. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Array Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Array Stock please use our How to Invest in Array Technologies guide.

Array Technologies Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Array Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Array Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Array Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Array Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IMSRTerrestrial Energy(0.23)16 per month 0.00 (0.04) 13.69 (11.78) 41.11 
CSIQCanadian Solar(0.20)6 per month 6.57  0.11  13.80 (11.80) 36.09 
WKCWorld Kinect 0.00 0 per month 2.06 (0) 2.87 (3.35) 11.51 
NESRNational Energy Services(0.15)6 per month 1.68  0.26  7.21 (2.98) 22.01 
VTOLBristow Group(0.93)8 per month 2.21  0.05  4.49 (3.48) 12.30 
LPGDorian LPG(0.01)8 per month 2.06  0.01  3.34 (2.53) 11.45 
DECDiversified Energy(0.05)22 per month 2.78  0.02  4.14 (4.75) 13.27 
NRPNatural Resource Partners 0.00 0 per month 0.70  0.1  1.91 (1.52) 6.49 
RESRPC Inc(0.03)11 per month 1.73  0.18  4.77 (2.96) 18.92 
INVXInnovex International 0.33 9 per month 1.57  0.18  5.81 (2.95) 12.82 

Other Forecasting Options for Array Technologies

For every potential investor in Array, whether a beginner or expert, Array Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Array Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Array. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Array Technologies' price trends.

Array Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Array Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Array Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Array Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Array Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Array Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Array Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Array Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Array Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Array Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Array Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Array Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting array stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Array Technologies

The number of cover stories for Array Technologies depends on current market conditions and Array Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Array Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Array Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Array Technologies Short Properties

Array Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Array Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Array Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Array Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Array Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding151.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments363 M

Additional Tools for Array Stock Analysis

When running Array Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Array Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Array Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Array Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Array Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Array Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Array Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.