Ashland Global Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASH Stock | USD 61.73 0.39 0.63% |
Ashland Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ashland Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The value of RSI of Ashland Global's share price is at 57. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ashland Global, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ashland Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ashland Global Holdings from the perspective of Ashland Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashland Global Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 61.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.63. Ashland Global after-hype prediction price | USD 61.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashland Global to cross-verify your projections. Ashland Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ashland price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashland using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashland charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ashland Global Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ashland Global Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 61.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ashland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ashland Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ashland Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ashland Global | Ashland Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ashland Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ashland Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ashland Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.30 and 64.16, respectively. We have considered Ashland Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ashland Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ashland Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.834 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2202 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9105 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0161 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.63 |
Predictive Modules for Ashland Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashland Global Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashland Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ashland Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ashland Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ashland Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ashland Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ashland Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ashland Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ashland Global's historical news coverage. Ashland Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.30 and 64.16, respectively. We have considered Ashland Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ashland Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ashland Global Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ashland Global Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ashland Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ashland Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ashland Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
61.73 | 61.73 | 0.00 |
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Ashland Global Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Ashland Global Holdings is traded for 61.73. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ashland is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ashland Global is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 61.73. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.5. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ashland Global Holdings recorded a loss per share of 17.74. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of February 2026. The firm had 511:250 split on the 15th of May 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashland Global to cross-verify your projections.Ashland Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ashland Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ashland Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Ashland Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ashland Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CC | Chemours Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.80 | 0.07 | 5.97 | (3.94) | 16.17 | |
| KWR | Quaker Chemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.04 | 0.06 | 4.49 | (3.24) | 11.57 | |
| NGVT | Ingevity Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.08 | 0.11 | 3.83 | (2.65) | 18.74 | |
| MTX | Minerals Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.13 | 3.06 | (1.63) | 5.23 | |
| IOSP | Innospec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.00 | 0.09 | 2.71 | (2.05) | 7.38 | |
| WDFC | WD 40 Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.13 | 2.39 | (1.68) | 10.75 | |
| MEOH | Methanex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.13 | 3.91 | (2.61) | 8.95 | |
| SID | Companhia Siderurgica Nacional | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.92 | 0.07 | 5.56 | (5.03) | 13.47 | |
| SKE | Skeena Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | 0.35 | 6.44 | (4.34) | 13.14 | |
| AVNT | Avient Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.42 | 0.08 | 3.41 | (2.45) | 8.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ashland Global
For every potential investor in Ashland, whether a beginner or expert, Ashland Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ashland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ashland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ashland Global's price trends.Ashland Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ashland Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ashland Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ashland Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ashland Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ashland Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ashland Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ashland Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ashland Global Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 18582.89 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.18) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 61.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 61.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.16 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.39) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.81 |
Ashland Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ashland Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ashland Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ashland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ashland Global
The number of cover stories for Ashland Global depends on current market conditions and Ashland Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ashland Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ashland Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ashland Global Short Properties
Ashland Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ashland Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ashland Global Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ashland Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashland Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 215 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashland Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is there potential for Stock market expansion? Will Ashland introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashland Global. If investors know Ashland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Ashland Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Investors evaluate Ashland Global Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Ashland Global's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Ashland Global's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Ashland Global's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Ashland Global represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Ashland Global's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.