Aspen Aerogels Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ASPN Stock | USD 3.82 0.08 2.05% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aspen Aerogels on the next trading day is expected to be 3.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.35. Aspen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Aspen Aerogels' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aspen Aerogels' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aspen Aerogels fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Aspen Aerogels' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.30) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.32) | Wall Street Target Price 6.8333 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.38) |
Using Aspen Aerogels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aspen Aerogels from the perspective of Aspen Aerogels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aspen Aerogels using Aspen Aerogels' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aspen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aspen Aerogels' stock price.
Aspen Aerogels Implied Volatility | 1.36 |
Aspen Aerogels' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aspen Aerogels stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aspen Aerogels' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aspen Aerogels stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aspen Aerogels' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aspen Aerogels on the next trading day is expected to be 3.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.35. Aspen Aerogels after-hype prediction price | USD 3.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Aerogels to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Aspen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aspen Aerogels' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aspen Aerogels' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aspen Aerogels stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aspen Aerogels' open interest, investors have to compare it to Aspen Aerogels' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aspen Aerogels is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aspen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aspen Aerogels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aspen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aspen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aspen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aspen Aerogels Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aspen Aerogels on the next trading day is expected to be 3.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aspen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aspen Aerogels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aspen Aerogels Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aspen Aerogels | Aspen Aerogels Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aspen Aerogels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aspen Aerogels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aspen Aerogels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 10.58, respectively. We have considered Aspen Aerogels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aspen Aerogels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aspen Aerogels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1171 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1045 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2092 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0537 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.345 |
Predictive Modules for Aspen Aerogels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Aerogels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aspen Aerogels After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aspen Aerogels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aspen Aerogels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aspen Aerogels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aspen Aerogels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aspen Aerogels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aspen Aerogels' historical news coverage. Aspen Aerogels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 10.64, respectively. We have considered Aspen Aerogels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aspen Aerogels is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aspen Aerogels is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aspen Aerogels Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aspen Aerogels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aspen Aerogels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aspen Aerogels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.92 | 6.76 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.82 | 3.82 | 0.00 |
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Aspen Aerogels Hype Timeline
Aspen Aerogels is presently traded for 3.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Aspen is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.92%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aspen Aerogels is about 6377.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.72. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.05. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aspen Aerogels recorded a loss per share of 3.71. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Aerogels to cross-verify your projections.Aspen Aerogels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aspen Aerogels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aspen Aerogels' future price movements. Getting to know how Aspen Aerogels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aspen Aerogels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NX | Quanex Building Products | 0.19 | 9 per month | 2.40 | 0.11 | 6.18 | (4.72) | 14.57 | |
| FIP | FTAI Infrastructure | (0.08) | 3 per month | 3.76 | 0.02 | 7.16 | (6.73) | 18.25 | |
| BXC | BlueLinx Holdings | (0.19) | 3 per month | 2.38 | (0.0001) | 7.49 | (3.91) | 13.08 | |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises | 1.44 | 11 per month | 3.04 | (0) | 4.04 | (3.14) | 17.93 | |
| LGMK | LogicMark | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 17.14 | (19.10) | 57.77 | |
| EH | Ehang Holdings | 0.55 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.79 | (5.09) | 17.58 | |
| LTBR | Lightbridge Corp | 0.15 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.65 | (10.77) | 32.08 | |
| HY | Hyster Yale Materials Handling | (1.42) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.10 | (4.68) | 20.40 | |
| KRNT | Kornit Digital | (1.62) | 16 per month | 2.60 | (0.02) | 5.04 | (4.50) | 13.28 | |
| ADSE | Ads Tec Energy | (0.08) | 9 per month | 2.52 | 0.06 | 5.43 | (4.04) | 17.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aspen Aerogels
For every potential investor in Aspen, whether a beginner or expert, Aspen Aerogels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aspen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aspen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aspen Aerogels' price trends.Aspen Aerogels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aspen Aerogels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aspen Aerogels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Aerogels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aspen Aerogels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aspen Aerogels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aspen Aerogels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aspen Aerogels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aspen Aerogels entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aspen Aerogels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aspen Aerogels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aspen Aerogels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aspen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.64 | |||
| Variance | 44.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aspen Aerogels
The number of cover stories for Aspen Aerogels depends on current market conditions and Aspen Aerogels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aspen Aerogels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aspen Aerogels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aspen Aerogels Short Properties
Aspen Aerogels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aspen Aerogels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aspen Aerogels often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aspen Aerogels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aspen Aerogels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 220.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Aerogels to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Aerogels guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Oil & Gas Equipment & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Aerogels. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Aerogels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.71) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.38) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Aspen Aerogels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Aerogels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Aerogels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Aerogels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Aerogels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Aerogels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Aerogels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Aerogels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.