Aveanna Healthcare Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AVAH Stock | USD 8.34 0.09 1.09% |
Aveanna Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aveanna Healthcare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, the value of RSI of Aveanna Healthcare's share price is approaching 45. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aveanna Healthcare, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aveanna Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings from the perspective of Aveanna Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.21. Aveanna Healthcare after-hype prediction price | USD 8.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aveanna Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. Aveanna Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aveanna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aveanna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aveanna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aveanna Healthcare Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aveanna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aveanna Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aveanna Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aveanna Healthcare | Aveanna Healthcare Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aveanna Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aveanna Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aveanna Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.53 and 11.15, respectively. We have considered Aveanna Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aveanna Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aveanna Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.487 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0118 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1868 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0211 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.21 |
Predictive Modules for Aveanna Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aveanna Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aveanna Healthcare After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aveanna Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aveanna Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aveanna Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aveanna Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aveanna Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aveanna Healthcare's historical news coverage. Aveanna Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.53 and 11.15, respectively. We have considered Aveanna Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aveanna Healthcare is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aveanna Healthcare is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aveanna Healthcare Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aveanna Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aveanna Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aveanna Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.81 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.34 | 8.34 | 0.00 |
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Aveanna Healthcare Hype Timeline
Aveanna Healthcare is presently traded for 8.34. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Aveanna is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aveanna Healthcare is about 1502.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.32. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.85. Aveanna Healthcare had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aveanna Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.Aveanna Healthcare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aveanna Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aveanna Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how Aveanna Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aveanna Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NHC | National HealthCare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.13 | 2.84 | (2.20) | 9.28 | |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.71 | (7.74) | 33.41 | |
| ADUS | Addus HomeCare | (1.87) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.84 | (3.93) | 11.54 | |
| LFST | Lifestance Health Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.15 | 3.26 | (2.55) | 32.81 | |
| MD | Mednax Inc | 0.04 | 6 per month | 1.84 | 0.07 | 3.16 | (3.57) | 28.51 | |
| ARDT | Ardent Health Partners | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.47 | (3.69) | 36.66 | |
| ASTH | Astrana Health | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.14 | (7.67) | 31.71 | |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings | 0.04 | 15 per month | 1.02 | 0.05 | 2.25 | (1.70) | 13.50 | |
| BKD | Brookdale Senior Living | (0.16) | 6 per month | 0.52 | 0.30 | 4.34 | (1.70) | 9.68 | |
| LMAT | LeMaitre Vascular | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.17 | (2.30) | 8.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aveanna Healthcare
For every potential investor in Aveanna, whether a beginner or expert, Aveanna Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aveanna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aveanna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aveanna Healthcare's price trends.Aveanna Healthcare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aveanna Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aveanna Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aveanna Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aveanna Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aveanna Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aveanna Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aveanna Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aveanna Healthcare Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aveanna Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aveanna Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aveanna Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aveanna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Variance | 7.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aveanna Healthcare
The number of cover stories for Aveanna Healthcare depends on current market conditions and Aveanna Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aveanna Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aveanna Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aveanna Healthcare Short Properties
Aveanna Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aveanna Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aveanna Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aveanna Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 84.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aveanna Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is there potential for Stock market expansion? Will Aveanna introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aveanna Healthcare. If investors know Aveanna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Aveanna Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aveanna Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aveanna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aveanna Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aveanna Healthcare's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Aveanna Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aveanna Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Aveanna Healthcare's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Aveanna Healthcare represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Aveanna Healthcare's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.