Bain Capital Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BCSF Stock | USD 13.71 0.02 0.15% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bain Capital Specialty on the next trading day is expected to be 13.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.31. Bain Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bain Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Bain Capital's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4433 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.89 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.6533 | Wall Street Target Price 14.8333 |
Using Bain Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bain Capital Specialty from the perspective of Bain Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bain Capital using Bain Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bain using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bain Capital's stock price.
Bain Capital Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Bain Capital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Bain. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Bain Capital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 14.5984 | Short Percent 0.0073 | Short Ratio 0.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 445.1 K | 50 Day MA 13.9006 |
Bain Capital Specialty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Bain Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bain. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bain can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bain Capital Specialty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bain Capital Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Bain Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bain Capital Specialty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bain Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bain Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bain Capital's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bain Capital Specialty on the next trading day is expected to be 13.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.31. Bain Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 13.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bain Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bain contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bain Capital Specialty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Bain Capital trading at USD 13.71, that is roughly USD 0.005398 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bain Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bain Capital Specialty options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Bain Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bain Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bain Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bain Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bain Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bain Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bain Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bain. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Bain Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bain price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bain using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bain charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bain Capital Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Bain Capital's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 37.6 M | Current Value 67 M | Quarterly Volatility 40.5 M |
Bain Capital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bain Capital Specialty on the next trading day is expected to be 13.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bain Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bain Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bain Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bain Capital | Bain Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bain Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bain Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bain Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.38 and 14.82, respectively. We have considered Bain Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bain Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bain Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3565 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.134 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3051 |
Predictive Modules for Bain Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bain Capital Specialty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bain Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bain Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bain Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bain Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bain Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bain Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bain Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bain Capital's historical news coverage. Bain Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.49 and 14.93, respectively. We have considered Bain Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bain Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bain Capital Specialty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bain Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bain Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bain Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bain Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.71 | 13.71 | 0.00 |
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Bain Capital Hype Timeline
Bain Capital Specialty is currently traded for 13.71. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Bain is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bain Capital is about 367.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.70. About 54.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.79. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bain Capital Specialty has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The firm had 101:100 split on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bain Capital to cross-verify your projections.Bain Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bain Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bain Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Bain Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bain Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WTM | White Mountains Insurance | (23.27) | 10 per month | 0.65 | 0.02 | 1.39 | (1.26) | 8.03 | |
| OALC | Unified Series Trust | (0.12) | 1 per month | 0.86 | (0.04) | 1.07 | (1.42) | 3.40 | |
| 444859BR2 | HUMANA INC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.19 | (2.51) | 12.88 | |
| SCRYX | Small Cap Core | 17.89 | 1 per month | 0.71 | 0.12 | 2.15 | (1.51) | 14.85 | |
| ABHYX | High Yield Municipal Fund | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.62) | 0.23 | (0.23) | 0.92 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | 2.10 | 1 per month | 0.37 | 0.07 | 0.93 | (1.09) | 12.28 | |
| VIASP | Via Renewables | 0.13 | 21 per month | 0.25 | (0.06) | 0.93 | (0.64) | 2.46 | |
| EPASX | Ep Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.41 | (0.01) | 1.39 | (0.78) | 3.02 | |
| FGRO | Fidelity Growth Opportunities | (0.18) | 2 per month | 17.20 | 0.17 | 1.35 | (1.60) | 5,625 | |
| ANTMX | Nt International Small Mid | 0.13 | 1 per month | 0.77 | 0.07 | 1.40 | (1.43) | 3.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bain Capital
For every potential investor in Bain, whether a beginner or expert, Bain Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bain Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bain. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bain Capital's price trends.Bain Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bain Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bain Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bain Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bain Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bain Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bain Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bain Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bain Capital Specialty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3043.06 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.11) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Bain Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bain Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bain Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bain stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9312 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bain Capital
The number of cover stories for Bain Capital depends on current market conditions and Bain Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bain Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bain Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bain Capital Short Properties
Bain Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bain Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bain Capital Specialty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bain Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bain Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 64.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bain Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bain Capital. If investors know Bain will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bain Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Dividend Share 1.68 | Earnings Share 1.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Bain Capital Specialty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bain that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bain Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bain Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bain Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bain Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bain Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bain Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bain Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.