Brookdale Senior Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BKD Stock | USD 13.11 0.19 1.47% |
Brookdale Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Brookdale Senior stock prices and determine the direction of Brookdale Senior Living's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Brookdale Senior's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Brookdale Senior's share price is above 70 at the present time suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Brookdale, making its price go up or down. Momentum 76
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.18) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.13) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.56) | Wall Street Target Price 13.875 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.18) |
Using Brookdale Senior hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Brookdale Senior Living from the perspective of Brookdale Senior response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Brookdale Senior using Brookdale Senior's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Brookdale using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Brookdale Senior's stock price.
Brookdale Senior Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Brookdale Senior's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Brookdale. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Brookdale Senior stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 8.3935 | Short Percent 0.0809 | Short Ratio 5.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 22.1 M | 50 Day MA 11.055 |
Brookdale Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Brookdale Senior Living on the next trading day is expected to be 13.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.98.Brookdale Senior Living Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Brookdale Senior's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Brookdale. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Brookdale can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Brookdale Senior Living. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Brookdale Senior's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Brookdale Senior.
Brookdale Senior Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
Brookdale Senior's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Brookdale Senior Living stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Brookdale Senior's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Brookdale Senior stock will not fluctuate a lot when Brookdale Senior's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Brookdale Senior Living on the next trading day is expected to be 13.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.98. Brookdale Senior after-hype prediction price | USD 13.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Brookdale | Build AI portfolio with Brookdale Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Brookdale contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Brookdale Senior Living will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Brookdale Senior trading at USD 13.11, that is roughly USD 0.006391 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Brookdale Senior's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Brookdale Senior Living options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Brookdale Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Brookdale Senior's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Brookdale Senior's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Brookdale Senior stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Brookdale Senior's open interest, investors have to compare it to Brookdale Senior's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Brookdale Senior is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Brookdale. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Brookdale Senior Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Brookdale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Brookdale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Brookdale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Brookdale Senior Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Brookdale Senior's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 251.9 M | Current Value 253.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 126.3 M |
Brookdale Senior Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Brookdale Senior Living on the next trading day is expected to be 13.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brookdale Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brookdale Senior's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Brookdale Senior Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Brookdale Senior | Brookdale Senior Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Brookdale Senior Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Brookdale Senior's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Brookdale Senior's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.38 and 15.32, respectively. We have considered Brookdale Senior's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brookdale Senior stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brookdale Senior stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2219 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2094 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0195 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.9838 |
Predictive Modules for Brookdale Senior
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brookdale Senior Living. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Brookdale Senior After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Brookdale Senior at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Brookdale Senior or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Brookdale Senior, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Brookdale Senior Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Brookdale Senior's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Brookdale Senior's historical news coverage. Brookdale Senior's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.16 and 15.06, respectively. We have considered Brookdale Senior's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Brookdale Senior is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Brookdale Senior Living is based on 3 months time horizon.
Brookdale Senior Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Brookdale Senior is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Brookdale Senior backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Brookdale Senior, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 1.97 | 0.28 | 0.07 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.11 | 13.11 | 0.00 |
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Brookdale Senior Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Brookdale Senior Living is traded for 13.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Brookdale is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.6%. %. The volatility of related hype on Brookdale Senior is about 1758.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.04. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.32. Brookdale Senior Living last dividend was issued on the 8th of October 2008. The entity had 5:6 split on the 8th of April 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brookdale Senior to cross-verify your projections.Brookdale Senior Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Brookdale Senior's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Brookdale Senior's future price movements. Getting to know how Brookdale Senior's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Brookdale Senior may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ADUS | Addus HomeCare | (1.87) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.84 | (3.93) | 11.54 | |
| ARDT | Ardent Health Partners | 0.10 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.47 | (3.69) | 36.66 | |
| NHC | National HealthCare | 2.37 | 6 per month | 1.62 | 0.08 | 2.84 | (2.20) | 9.28 | |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences | 1.05 | 10 per month | 2.14 | 0.14 | 5.94 | (4.44) | 126.24 | |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | (1.87) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.71 | (7.74) | 33.41 | |
| RCUS | Arcus Biosciences | (1.54) | 9 per month | 4.11 | 0.1 | 6.88 | (6.53) | 21.81 | |
| IBRX | Immunitybio | 0.65 | 9 per month | 4.20 | 0.21 | 11.16 | (7.49) | 51.87 | |
| ETNB | 89bio Inc | (0.06) | 31 per month | 1.83 | 0.09 | 3.02 | (4.66) | 86.02 | |
| AVAH | Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.50 | (5.27) | 16.94 | |
| DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 0.09 | 12 per month | 2.98 | 0.11 | 6.50 | (4.21) | 23.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Brookdale Senior
For every potential investor in Brookdale, whether a beginner or expert, Brookdale Senior's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Brookdale Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Brookdale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Brookdale Senior's price trends.Brookdale Senior Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Brookdale Senior stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Brookdale Senior could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Brookdale Senior by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Brookdale Senior Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Brookdale Senior stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Brookdale Senior shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Brookdale Senior stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Brookdale Senior Living entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Brookdale Senior Risk Indicators
The analysis of Brookdale Senior's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brookdale Senior's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brookdale stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6037 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3645 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Brookdale Senior
The number of cover stories for Brookdale Senior depends on current market conditions and Brookdale Senior's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Brookdale Senior is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Brookdale Senior's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Brookdale Senior Short Properties
Brookdale Senior's future price predictability will typically decrease when Brookdale Senior's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Brookdale Senior Living often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Brookdale Senior's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Brookdale Senior's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 227.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 328.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brookdale Senior to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Will Health Care Providers & Services sector continue expanding? Could Brookdale diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Brookdale Senior. Projected growth potential of Brookdale fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Brookdale Senior data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (1.32) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Brookdale Senior Living using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Brookdale Senior's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Brookdale Senior's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Brookdale Senior's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Brookdale Senior should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Brookdale Senior's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.