Black Stone Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BSM Stock | USD 14.99 0.24 1.63% |
Black Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Black Stone's stock price is about 66 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Black, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Black Stone hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Black Stone Minerals from the perspective of Black Stone response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Black Stone Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 14.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.06. Black Stone after-hype prediction price | USD 14.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Black Stone to cross-verify your projections. Black Stone Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Black price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Black using various technical indicators. When you analyze Black charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Black Stone Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Black Stone Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 14.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Black Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Black Stone's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Black Stone Stock Forecast Pattern
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Black Stone Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Black Stone's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Black Stone's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.65 and 16.33, respectively. We have considered Black Stone's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Black Stone stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Black Stone stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.9604 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.035 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.151 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.06 |
Predictive Modules for Black Stone
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Black Stone Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Black Stone's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Black Stone After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Black Stone at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Black Stone or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Black Stone, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Black Stone Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Black Stone's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Black Stone's historical news coverage. Black Stone's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.65 and 16.33, respectively. We have considered Black Stone's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Black Stone is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Black Stone Minerals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Black Stone Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Black Stone is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Black Stone backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Black Stone, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.99 | 14.99 | 0.00 |
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Black Stone Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Black Stone Minerals is traded for 14.99. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Black is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Black Stone is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.99. About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Black Stone was currently reported as 3.89. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.22. Black Stone Minerals last dividend was issued on the 6th of November 2025. The entity had 4:5 split on the 29th of April 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Black Stone to cross-verify your projections.Black Stone Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Black Stone's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Black Stone's future price movements. Getting to know how Black Stone's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Black Stone may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIVI | Civitas Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.63 | (4.19) | 11.71 | |
| INSW | International Seaways | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.10 | 3.52 | (2.42) | 14.71 | |
| TDW | Tidewater | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | 0.11 | 5.06 | (5.04) | 15.89 | |
| NOG | Northern Oil Gas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.34 | 0.07 | 5.26 | (3.89) | 10.76 | |
| SM | SM Energy Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.59 | (4.49) | 10.18 | |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.72 | 0.01 | 4.48 | (2.67) | 12.30 | |
| USAC | USA Compression Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.14 | 3.03 | (2.55) | 10.45 | |
| LBRT | Liberty Oilfield Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.07 | 0.16 | 5.12 | (6.06) | 11.51 | |
| OII | Oceaneering International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.92 | 0.15 | 5.31 | (3.35) | 12.51 | |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.15 | 2.42 | (1.67) | 10.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Black Stone
For every potential investor in Black, whether a beginner or expert, Black Stone's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Black Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Black. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Black Stone's price trends.Black Stone Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Black Stone stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Black Stone could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Black Stone by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Black Stone Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Black Stone stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Black Stone shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Black Stone stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Black Stone Minerals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Black Stone Risk Indicators
The analysis of Black Stone's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Black Stone's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting black stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Black Stone
The number of cover stories for Black Stone depends on current market conditions and Black Stone's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Black Stone is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Black Stone's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Black Stone Short Properties
Black Stone's future price predictability will typically decrease when Black Stone's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Black Stone Minerals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Black Stone's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Black Stone's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 210.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Black Stone to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Black diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Black Stone. Projected growth potential of Black fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Black Stone data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Black Stone Minerals using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Black Stone's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Black Stone's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Black Stone's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Black Stone should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Black Stone's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.