Comstock Holding Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CHCI Stock | USD 11.88 0.18 1.49% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Comstock Holding Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.91. Comstock Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Comstock Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Comstock Holding's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Wall Street Target Price 7 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
Using Comstock Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Comstock Holding Companies from the perspective of Comstock Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Comstock Holding Com Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Comstock Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Comstock. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Comstock can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Comstock Holding Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Comstock Holding Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.91.
Comstock Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 11.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comstock Holding to cross-verify your projections. Comstock Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Comstock price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Comstock using various technical indicators. When you analyze Comstock charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Comstock Holding Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Comstock Holding's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2002-12-31 | Previous Quarter 30.5 M | Current Value 26.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 13.6 M |
Comstock Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Comstock Holding Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Comstock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Comstock Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Comstock Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Comstock Holding | Comstock Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Comstock Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Comstock Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Comstock Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.75 and 16.00, respectively. We have considered Comstock Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Comstock Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Comstock Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3481 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5792 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0444 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.9088 |
Predictive Modules for Comstock Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Comstock Holding Com. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comstock Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Comstock Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Comstock Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Comstock Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Comstock Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Comstock Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Comstock Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Comstock Holding's historical news coverage. Comstock Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.76 and 16.02, respectively. We have considered Comstock Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Comstock Holding is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Comstock Holding Com is based on 3 months time horizon.
Comstock Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Comstock Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Comstock Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Comstock Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 4.13 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.88 | 11.89 | 0.08 |
|
Comstock Holding Hype Timeline
Comstock Holding Com is currently traded for 11.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Comstock is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.89 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Comstock Holding is about 5506.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.86. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 51.29 M. Net Income was 14.56 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.51 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comstock Holding to cross-verify your projections.Comstock Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Comstock Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Comstock Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Comstock Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Comstock Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SEVN | Seven Hills Realty | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.88 | (3.40) | 8.46 | |
| BEEP | Mobile Infrastructure | (0.24) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.12 | (7.25) | 18.98 | |
| AXR | AMREP | (0.49) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.56 | (4.51) | 13.12 | |
| STRS | Stratus Properties | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.92 | 0.14 | 5.07 | (4.41) | 17.98 | |
| ONL | Orion Office Reit | (0.09) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.57 | (3.83) | 11.03 | |
| SUNS | Sunrise Realty Trust | (0.15) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.64 | (2.47) | 9.22 | |
| RMAX | Re Max Holding | 0.25 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.56 | (4.11) | 14.02 | |
| LODE | Comstock Mining | (0.26) | 9 per month | 4.24 | 0.09 | 8.36 | (6.44) | 18.69 | |
| MDV | Modiv Inc | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.95 | 0.02 | 2.23 | (2.05) | 7.01 | |
| AEI | Alset Ehome International | 0.07 | 4 per month | 6.40 | 0.05 | 11.73 | (12.70) | 42.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Comstock Holding
For every potential investor in Comstock, whether a beginner or expert, Comstock Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Comstock Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Comstock. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Comstock Holding's price trends.Comstock Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Comstock Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Comstock Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Comstock Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Comstock Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Comstock Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Comstock Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Comstock Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Comstock Holding Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 409.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.39) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.18) |
Comstock Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Comstock Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Comstock Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting comstock stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Variance | 15.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Comstock Holding
The number of cover stories for Comstock Holding depends on current market conditions and Comstock Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Comstock Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Comstock Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Comstock Holding Short Properties
Comstock Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Comstock Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Comstock Holding Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Comstock Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comstock Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comstock Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comstock Holding. If investors know Comstock will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comstock Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Earnings Share 1.34 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Comstock Holding Com is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comstock that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comstock Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comstock Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comstock Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comstock Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comstock Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Comstock Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comstock Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.