Cuhadaroglu Metal Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CUSAN Stock | TRY 26.44 0.38 1.42% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 28.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.80. Cuhadaroglu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cuhadaroglu Metal stock prices and determine the direction of Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal to cross-verify your projections. Cuhadaroglu |
Most investors in Cuhadaroglu Metal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cuhadaroglu Metal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cuhadaroglu Metal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Cuhadaroglu Metal polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Cuhadaroglu Metal Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 28.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 1.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cuhadaroglu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cuhadaroglu Metal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cuhadaroglu Metal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cuhadaroglu Metal | Cuhadaroglu Metal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cuhadaroglu Metal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cuhadaroglu Metal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cuhadaroglu Metal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.88 and 32.22, respectively. We have considered Cuhadaroglu Metal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cuhadaroglu Metal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cuhadaroglu Metal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7765 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1443 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 69.8045 |
Predictive Modules for Cuhadaroglu Metal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cuhadaroglu Metal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Cuhadaroglu Metal
For every potential investor in Cuhadaroglu, whether a beginner or expert, Cuhadaroglu Metal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cuhadaroglu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cuhadaroglu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cuhadaroglu Metal's price trends.Cuhadaroglu Metal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cuhadaroglu Metal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cuhadaroglu Metal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cuhadaroglu Metal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cuhadaroglu Metal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cuhadaroglu Metal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cuhadaroglu Metal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cuhadaroglu Metal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cuhadaroglu Metal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cuhadaroglu Metal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cuhadaroglu Metal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cuhadaroglu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Variance | 15.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Cuhadaroglu Metal
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cuhadaroglu Metal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cuhadaroglu Metal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cuhadaroglu Metal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cuhadaroglu Metal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cuhadaroglu Metal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi to buy it.
The correlation of Cuhadaroglu Metal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cuhadaroglu Metal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cuhadaroglu Metal Sanayi moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cuhadaroglu Metal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cuhadaroglu Metal to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Complementary Tools for Cuhadaroglu Stock analysis
When running Cuhadaroglu Metal's price analysis, check to measure Cuhadaroglu Metal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cuhadaroglu Metal is operating at the current time. Most of Cuhadaroglu Metal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cuhadaroglu Metal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cuhadaroglu Metal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cuhadaroglu Metal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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