Dingdong Limited Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DDL Stock  USD 2.88  0.06  2.13%   
Dingdong Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Dingdong Limited's share price is at 58 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dingdong Limited, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 58

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dingdong Limited's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Dingdong Limited and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Dingdong Limited's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dingdong Limited ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Dingdong Limited hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dingdong Limited ADR from the perspective of Dingdong Limited response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dingdong Limited ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 2.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.12.

Dingdong Limited after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 2.88  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dingdong Limited to cross-verify your projections.

Dingdong Limited Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dingdong price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dingdong using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dingdong charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Dingdong Limited simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Dingdong Limited ADR are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Dingdong Limited ADR prices get older.

Dingdong Limited Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dingdong Limited ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 2.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dingdong Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dingdong Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dingdong Limited Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dingdong Limited  Dingdong Limited Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Dingdong Limited Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dingdong Limited's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dingdong Limited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.01, respectively. We have considered Dingdong Limited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.88
2.88
Expected Value
8.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dingdong Limited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dingdong Limited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.0835
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0173
MADMean absolute deviation0.0853
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.035
SAESum of the absolute errors5.12
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dingdong Limited ADR forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Dingdong Limited observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dingdong Limited

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dingdong Limited ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dingdong Limited's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.142.888.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.132.627.75
Details

Dingdong Limited After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dingdong Limited at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dingdong Limited or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dingdong Limited, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dingdong Limited Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dingdong Limited's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dingdong Limited's historical news coverage. Dingdong Limited's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.14 and 8.01, respectively. We have considered Dingdong Limited's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
2.88
2.88
After-hype Price
8.01
Upside
Dingdong Limited is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dingdong Limited ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.

Dingdong Limited Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dingdong Limited is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dingdong Limited backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dingdong Limited, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.86 
5.13
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.88
2.88
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Dingdong Limited Hype Timeline

On the 29th of January Dingdong Limited ADR is traded for 2.88. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Dingdong is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.86%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dingdong Limited is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.88. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Dingdong Limited was currently reported as 2.37. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dingdong Limited to cross-verify your projections.

Dingdong Limited Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dingdong Limited's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dingdong Limited's future price movements. Getting to know how Dingdong Limited's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dingdong Limited may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VLGEAVillage Super Market 0.00 0 per month 1.19  0.08  2.82 (2.01) 7.68 
QSGQuantaSing Group Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.20) 6.26 (6.49) 15.16 
USNAUSANA Health Sciences 0.00 0 per month 1.74 (0.0004) 3.78 (2.97) 8.95 
VSTAVasta Platform 0.00 0 per month 1.50 (0.03) 1.42 (1.61) 11.44 
LNDBrasilagro Adr 0.00 0 per month 1.17  0.08  2.71 (2.19) 6.54 
CVGWCalavo Growers 0.00 0 per month 1.69  0.07  2.72 (3.27) 16.73 
LWAYLifeway Foods 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.1) 2.81 (3.01) 10.60 
MAMAMamas Creations 0.00 0 per month 1.95  0.14  4.44 (2.96) 36.68 
WESTWestrock Coffee 0.00 0 per month 3.42  0.03  8.01 (6.44) 18.25 
WILCG Willi Food International 0.00 0 per month 0.94  0.22  2.69 (1.69) 8.43 

Other Forecasting Options for Dingdong Limited

For every potential investor in Dingdong, whether a beginner or expert, Dingdong Limited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dingdong Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dingdong. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dingdong Limited's price trends.

Dingdong Limited Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dingdong Limited stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dingdong Limited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dingdong Limited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dingdong Limited Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dingdong Limited stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dingdong Limited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dingdong Limited stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dingdong Limited ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dingdong Limited Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dingdong Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dingdong Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dingdong stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dingdong Limited

The number of cover stories for Dingdong Limited depends on current market conditions and Dingdong Limited's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dingdong Limited is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dingdong Limited's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Dingdong Limited Short Properties

Dingdong Limited's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dingdong Limited's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dingdong Limited ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dingdong Limited's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dingdong Limited's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding225.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.4 B
When determining whether Dingdong Limited ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Dingdong Limited's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Dingdong Limited's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Dingdong Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dingdong Limited to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dingdong Limited. Projected growth potential of Dingdong fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Dingdong Limited assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding Dingdong Limited ADR requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Dingdong's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Dingdong Limited's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Dingdong Limited's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Dingdong Limited's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Dingdong Limited should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Dingdong Limited's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.