FGI Industries Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

FGI Stock  USD 6.43  0.12  1.90%   
FGI Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FGI Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 31st of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of FGI Industries' share price is at 51. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FGI Industries, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of FGI Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with FGI Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting FGI Industries' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.836
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.27)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.70)
Wall Street Target Price
8.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.59
Using FGI Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FGI Industries from the perspective of FGI Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

FGI Relative Strength Index

The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FGI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 6.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.42.

FGI Industries Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to FGI Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FGI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FGI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around FGI Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of FGI Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about FGI Industries.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FGI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 6.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.42.

FGI Industries after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.33  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FGI Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in FGI Stock please use our How to Invest in FGI Industries guide.

FGI Industries Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine FGI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FGI using various technical indicators. When you analyze FGI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for FGI Industries works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

FGI Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FGI Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 6.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FGI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FGI Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FGI Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest FGI Industries  FGI Industries Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

FGI Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FGI Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FGI Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 14.89, respectively. We have considered FGI Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.43
6.42
Expected Value
14.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FGI Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FGI Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0899
MADMean absolute deviation0.4237
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0661
SAESum of the absolute errors25.4206
When FGI Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any FGI Industries trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent FGI Industries observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for FGI Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FGI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.377.3315.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.367.1515.63
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.748.509.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FGI Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FGI Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FGI Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in FGI Industries.

FGI Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of FGI Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FGI Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FGI Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

FGI Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting FGI Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FGI Industries' historical news coverage. FGI Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.37 and 15.81, respectively. We have considered FGI Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.43
7.33
After-hype Price
15.81
Upside
FGI Industries is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FGI Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.

FGI Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FGI Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FGI Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FGI Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.66 
8.48
  0.90 
  0.01 
6 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.43
7.33
14.00 
623.53  
Notes

FGI Industries Hype Timeline

On the 31st of January FGI Industries is traded for 6.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.9, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. FGI is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 14.0%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.66%. The volatility of related hype on FGI Industries is about 38545.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.44. FGI Industries has 27.72 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.03, which is OK given its current industry classification. FGI Industries has a current ratio of 1.34, which is typical for the industry and considered as normal. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for FGI to invest in growth at high rates of return. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FGI Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in FGI Stock please use our How to Invest in FGI Industries guide.

FGI Industries Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to FGI Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FGI Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how FGI Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FGI Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ATERAterian 0.09 9 per month 0.00 (0.10) 7.14 (7.14) 28.48 
LOBOLOBO EV TECHNOLOGIES 0.03 8 per month 0.00 (0.05) 13.64 (11.63) 47.21 
DSSDSS Inc 0.03 20 per month 0.00 (0.05) 10.00 (6.30) 22.05 
CENNCenntro Electric Group 0.00 3 per month 0.00 (0.06) 13.33 (6.67) 24.81 
REBNReborn Coffee(0.04)10 per month 0.00 (0.03) 11.95 (9.04) 27.14 
UCARU Power Limited(0.09)7 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.79 (5.00) 15.91 
AZIAutozi Internet Technology 0.35 9 per month 0.00 (0.02) 21.43 (17.65) 88.70 
SONDSonder Holdings(0.02)8 per month 24.50  0.10  67.74 (61.54) 2,000 
YYGHYY Group Holding(0.01)8 per month 0.00 (0.07) 8.33 (8.33) 30.95 
CGTLCreative Global Technology(0.12)6 per month 8.54  0.22  31.58 (16.47) 149.10 

Other Forecasting Options for FGI Industries

For every potential investor in FGI, whether a beginner or expert, FGI Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FGI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FGI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FGI Industries' price trends.

FGI Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FGI Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FGI Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FGI Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FGI Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FGI Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FGI Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FGI Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FGI Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FGI Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of FGI Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FGI Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fgi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for FGI Industries

The number of cover stories for FGI Industries depends on current market conditions and FGI Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FGI Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FGI Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

FGI Industries Short Properties

FGI Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when FGI Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FGI Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FGI Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FGI Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding9.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.6 M
When determining whether FGI Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of FGI Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fgi Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fgi Industries Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FGI Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in FGI Stock please use our How to Invest in FGI Industries guide.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is there potential for Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods market expansion? Will FGI introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FGI Industries. Market participants price FGI higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about FGI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.836
Earnings Share
(2.06)
Revenue Per Share
70.79
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
(0.03)
Investors evaluate FGI Industries using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating FGI Industries' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause FGI Industries' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FGI Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FGI Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, FGI Industries' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.