Five Below Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FIVE Stock | USD 150.08 0.77 0.51% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five Below on the next trading day is expected to be 149.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 177.45. Five Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Five Below stock prices and determine the direction of Five Below's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Five Below's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Five Below's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Five Below's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Five Below fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Below to cross-verify your projections. Five |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Five Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Five Below's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Five Below's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Five Below stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Five Below's open interest, investors have to compare it to Five Below's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Five Below is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Five. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Five Below cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Five Below's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Five Below's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Five Below works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Five Below Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five Below on the next trading day is expected to be 149.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.96, mean absolute percentage error of 28.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 177.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five Below's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Five Below Stock Forecast Pattern
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Five Below Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Five Below's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Five Below's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 146.55 and 151.73, respectively. We have considered Five Below's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five Below stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five Below stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.8216 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9575 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 177.4526 |
Predictive Modules for Five Below
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Below. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Below's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Five Below
For every potential investor in Five, whether a beginner or expert, Five Below's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Five Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Five. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Five Below's price trends.Five Below Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Five Below stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Five Below could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Five Below by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Five Below Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Five Below's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Five Below's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Five Below Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Five Below stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Five Below shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Five Below stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Five Below entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 12483.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.28) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 150.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 150.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.90) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.77) |
Five Below Risk Indicators
The analysis of Five Below's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Five Below's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting five stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Variance | 6.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Five Below Investors Sentiment
The influence of Five Below's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Five. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Five Below's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Five. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Five can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Five Below. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Five Below's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Five Below's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Five Below's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Five Below.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Five Below in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Five Below's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Five Below options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Five Stock analysis
When running Five Below's price analysis, check to measure Five Below's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Below is operating at the current time. Most of Five Below's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Below's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Below's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Below to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Five Below's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Below. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Below listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.188 | Earnings Share 5.44 | Revenue Per Share 64.148 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.191 | Return On Assets 0.067 |
The market value of Five Below is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Below's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Below's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Below's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Below's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Below's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Below is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Below's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.