First Mid Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| FMBH Stock | USD 41.45 0.61 1.45% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Mid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The value of RSI of First Mid's share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling First Mid, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using First Mid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Mid Illinois from the perspective of First Mid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is expected to be 42.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.76. First Mid after-hype prediction price | USD 41.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections. First Mid Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Mid Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is expected to be 42.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Mid Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Mid | First Mid Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Mid Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Mid's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Mid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.86 and 44.18, respectively. We have considered First Mid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Mid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Mid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6766 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0453 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0263 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.7607 |
Predictive Modules for First Mid
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Mid Illinois. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Mid After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Mid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Mid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Mid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Mid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Mid's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Mid's historical news coverage. First Mid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.79 and 43.11, respectively. We have considered First Mid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Mid is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Mid Illinois is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Mid Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Mid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Mid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Mid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.45 | 41.45 | 0.00 |
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First Mid Hype Timeline
First Mid Illinois is currently traded for 41.45. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Mid is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.45. About 48.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Mid Illinois has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The firm had 3:2 split on the 2nd of July 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections.First Mid Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Mid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Mid's future price movements. Getting to know how First Mid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Mid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.14 | 2.73 | (1.34) | 8.89 | |
| UVSP | Univest Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.09 | 3.42 | (1.85) | 9.31 | |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.32 | 0.16 | 3.68 | (2.18) | 10.36 | |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.27 | 3.75 | (1.86) | 8.00 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.52 | 0.07 | 3.16 | (2.37) | 9.50 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.42 | (0) | 3.12 | (1.93) | 18.16 | |
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.19 | 3.51 | (2.14) | 11.73 | |
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.99 | 0.07 | 3.49 | (2.36) | 10.98 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.10 | 2.72 | (1.57) | 8.85 | |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.17 | 3.39 | (2.28) | 13.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Mid
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Mid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Mid's price trends.First Mid Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Mid stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Mid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Mid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Mid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Mid stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Mid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Mid stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Mid Illinois entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7450.38 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.73 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.72) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.61) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.48 |
First Mid Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Mid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Mid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Variance | 2.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Mid
The number of cover stories for First Mid depends on current market conditions and First Mid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Mid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Mid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Mid Short Properties
First Mid's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Mid's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Mid Illinois often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Mid's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Mid's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is there potential for Stock market expansion? Will First introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Mid. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about First Mid listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
First Mid Illinois's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on First's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate First Mid's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since First Mid's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Mid's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Mid is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Mid's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.