Hertz Global Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HTZ Stock | USD 5.53 0.15 2.64% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hertz Global Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.37. Hertz Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of relative strength index of Hertz Global's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Hertz Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hertz Global Holdings from the perspective of Hertz Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hertz Global Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.37. Hertz Global after-hype prediction price | USD 5.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hertz Global to cross-verify your projections. Hertz Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hertz price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hertz using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hertz charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hertz Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hertz Global Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hertz Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hertz Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hertz Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hertz Global | Hertz Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hertz Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hertz Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hertz Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 11.96, respectively. We have considered Hertz Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hertz Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hertz Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.709 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2356 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0431 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.3707 |
Predictive Modules for Hertz Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hertz Global Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hertz Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hertz Global After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hertz Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hertz Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hertz Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hertz Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hertz Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hertz Global's historical news coverage. Hertz Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.28 and 11.65, respectively. We have considered Hertz Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hertz Global is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hertz Global Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hertz Global Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hertz Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hertz Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hertz Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 6.02 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.53 | 5.63 | 1.81 |
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Hertz Global Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Hertz Global Holdings is traded for 5.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Hertz is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.81%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Hertz Global is about 14682.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.54. The company reported the last year's revenue of 9.05 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (2.86 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 980 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hertz Global to cross-verify your projections.Hertz Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hertz Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hertz Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Hertz Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hertz Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRTN-PC | Triton International Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.44 | (0.11) | 0.68 | (0.64) | 2.46 | |
| CTOS | Custom Truck One | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.24 | (3.69) | 15.80 | |
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.03 | 0.05 | 5.15 | (4.09) | 12.12 | |
| MAN | ManpowerGroup | 0.28 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.65 | (3.72) | 10.95 | |
| MVST | Microvast Holdings | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.02 | (8.87) | 18.37 | |
| NSP | Insperity | 0.37 | 17 per month | 4.09 | 0.02 | 4.91 | (3.13) | 20.54 | |
| ATRO | Astronics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.59 | 0.21 | 6.28 | (3.74) | 15.01 | |
| EVEX | Eve Holding | (0.69) | 10 per month | 3.08 | (0.01) | 5.46 | (5.43) | 19.07 | |
| ENOV | Enovis Corp | 1.50 | 40 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.13 | (5.64) | 17.04 | |
| CECO | CECO Environmental Corp | (0.98) | 10 per month | 2.68 | 0.15 | 4.25 | (4.56) | 13.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hertz Global
For every potential investor in Hertz, whether a beginner or expert, Hertz Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hertz Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hertz. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hertz Global's price trends.Hertz Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hertz Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hertz Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hertz Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hertz Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hertz Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hertz Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hertz Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hertz Global Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hertz Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hertz Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hertz Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hertz stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.02 | |||
| Variance | 36.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hertz Global
The number of cover stories for Hertz Global depends on current market conditions and Hertz Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hertz Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hertz Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hertz Global Short Properties
Hertz Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hertz Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hertz Global Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hertz Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hertz Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 306 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 592 M |
Additional Tools for Hertz Stock Analysis
When running Hertz Global's price analysis, check to measure Hertz Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hertz Global is operating at the current time. Most of Hertz Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hertz Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hertz Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hertz Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.