JBG SMITH Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JBGS Stock | USD 17.14 0.22 1.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of JBG SMITH Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 16.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.73. JBG Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of JBG SMITH's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using JBG SMITH hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of JBG SMITH Properties from the perspective of JBG SMITH response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of JBG SMITH Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 16.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.73. JBG SMITH after-hype prediction price | USD 17.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JBG SMITH to cross-verify your projections. JBG SMITH Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine JBG price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for JBG using various technical indicators. When you analyze JBG charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
JBG SMITH Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JBG SMITH Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 16.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JBG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JBG SMITH's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
JBG SMITH Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest JBG SMITH | JBG SMITH Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
JBG SMITH Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting JBG SMITH's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JBG SMITH's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.33 and 18.54, respectively. We have considered JBG SMITH's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JBG SMITH stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JBG SMITH stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7839 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1432 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.7341 |
Predictive Modules for JBG SMITH
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JBG SMITH Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JBG SMITH After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of JBG SMITH at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in JBG SMITH or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of JBG SMITH, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
JBG SMITH Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting JBG SMITH's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on JBG SMITH's historical news coverage. JBG SMITH's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.53 and 18.75, respectively. We have considered JBG SMITH's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
JBG SMITH is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of JBG SMITH Properties is based on 3 months time horizon.
JBG SMITH Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as JBG SMITH is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading JBG SMITH backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with JBG SMITH, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.14 | 17.14 | 0.00 |
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JBG SMITH Hype Timeline
JBG SMITH Properties is currently traded for 17.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. JBG is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on JBG SMITH is about 14490.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.14. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.86. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. JBG SMITH Properties has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 297.26. The entity recorded a loss per share of 2.05. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JBG SMITH to cross-verify your projections.JBG SMITH Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to JBG SMITH's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict JBG SMITH's future price movements. Getting to know how JBG SMITH's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how JBG SMITH may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PEB | Pebblebrook Hotel Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.04 | 4.19 | (2.25) | 11.55 | |
| PDM | Piedmont Office Realty | 0.03 | 12 per month | 1.75 | (0.02) | 2.41 | (2.96) | 7.59 | |
| ELME | Elme Communities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.25 | (2.71) | 85.22 | |
| CIO | City Office | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 0.29 | (0.58) | 100.99 | |
| RLJ | RLJ Lodging Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.05 | 3.08 | (2.22) | 8.37 | |
| HOUS | Anywhere Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.39 | 0.25 | 7.75 | (3.45) | 14.45 | |
| AAT | American Assets Trust | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.95 | (2.53) | 7.22 | |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.26 | (7.13) | 16.73 | |
| ALEX | Alexander Baldwin Holdings | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.56 | 0.07 | 1.55 | (1.81) | 38.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for JBG SMITH
For every potential investor in JBG, whether a beginner or expert, JBG SMITH's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JBG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JBG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JBG SMITH's price trends.JBG SMITH Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JBG SMITH stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JBG SMITH could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JBG SMITH by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
JBG SMITH Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JBG SMITH stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JBG SMITH shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JBG SMITH stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JBG SMITH Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
JBG SMITH Risk Indicators
The analysis of JBG SMITH's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JBG SMITH's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jbg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for JBG SMITH
The number of cover stories for JBG SMITH depends on current market conditions and JBG SMITH's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that JBG SMITH is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about JBG SMITH's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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JBG SMITH Short Properties
JBG SMITH's future price predictability will typically decrease when JBG SMITH's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of JBG SMITH Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential JBG SMITH's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JBG SMITH's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 88.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 145.8 M |
Additional Tools for JBG Stock Analysis
When running JBG SMITH's price analysis, check to measure JBG SMITH's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JBG SMITH is operating at the current time. Most of JBG SMITH's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JBG SMITH's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JBG SMITH's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JBG SMITH to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.