Jefferson Capital Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| JCAP Stock | USD 21.26 0.28 1.30% |
Jefferson Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Jefferson Capital's share price is approaching 48. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Jefferson Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Jefferson Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jefferson Capital Common from the perspective of Jefferson Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Jefferson Capital Common on the next trading day is expected to be 23.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.15. Jefferson Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 21.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Jefferson Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Jefferson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jefferson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jefferson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Jefferson Capital Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Jefferson Capital Common on the next trading day is expected to be 23.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jefferson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jefferson Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Jefferson Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
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Jefferson Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Jefferson Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jefferson Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.45 and 25.72, respectively. We have considered Jefferson Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jefferson Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jefferson Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5469 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.609 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.1487 |
Predictive Modules for Jefferson Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jefferson Capital Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Jefferson Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Jefferson Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jefferson Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jefferson Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Jefferson Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Jefferson Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jefferson Capital's historical news coverage. Jefferson Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.62 and 23.90, respectively. We have considered Jefferson Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Jefferson Capital is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jefferson Capital Common is based on 3 months time horizon.
Jefferson Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Jefferson Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jefferson Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jefferson Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.64 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.26 | 21.26 | 0.00 |
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Jefferson Capital Hype Timeline
Jefferson Capital Common is currently traded for 21.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Jefferson is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Jefferson Capital is about 44000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.26. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Jefferson Capital was currently reported as 7.05. The company last dividend was issued on the 25th of August 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jefferson Capital to cross-verify your projections.Jefferson Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Jefferson Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jefferson Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Jefferson Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jefferson Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EZPW | EZCORP Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.47 | 0.10 | 3.08 | (2.56) | 9.31 | |
| BBDC | Barings BDC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.86 | 0.02 | 1.44 | (1.34) | 4.34 | |
| ECPG | Encore Capital Group | (0.08) | 2 per month | 1.45 | 0.19 | 4.02 | (2.57) | 14.34 | |
| GSBD | Goldman Sachs BDC | (0.08) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.73 | (1.93) | 4.28 | |
| OCSL | Oaktree Specialty Lending | (0.18) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.50 | (1.95) | 4.91 | |
| NAVI | Navient Corp | (0.06) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.14 | (4.32) | 24.69 | |
| ATLC | Atlanticus Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.64 | (5.57) | 14.61 | |
| VRTS | Virtus Investment Partners | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.70 | (0.01) | 2.94 | (2.99) | 8.72 | |
| LU | Lufax Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.75 | (3.70) | 8.78 | |
| TRIN | Trinity Capital | 0.40 | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.17 | 2.45 | (1.55) | 6.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Jefferson Capital
For every potential investor in Jefferson, whether a beginner or expert, Jefferson Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jefferson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jefferson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jefferson Capital's price trends.Jefferson Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jefferson Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jefferson Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jefferson Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Jefferson Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jefferson Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jefferson Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jefferson Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jefferson Capital Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7459.79 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.36 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.28) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.28) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.8 |
Jefferson Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Jefferson Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jefferson Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jefferson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Variance | 6.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Jefferson Capital
The number of cover stories for Jefferson Capital depends on current market conditions and Jefferson Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jefferson Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jefferson Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Jefferson Capital Short Properties
Jefferson Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Jefferson Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Jefferson Capital Common often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Jefferson Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jefferson Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 35.5 M |
Additional Tools for Jefferson Stock Analysis
When running Jefferson Capital's price analysis, check to measure Jefferson Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jefferson Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Jefferson Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jefferson Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jefferson Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jefferson Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.