Knorr Bremse Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

KNBHF Stock  USD 95.03  0.61  0.64%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Knorr Bremse Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 95.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.62. Knorr Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Knorr Bremse's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Knorr Bremse - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Knorr Bremse prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Knorr Bremse price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Knorr Bremse Aktieng.

Knorr Bremse Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Knorr Bremse Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 95.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 1.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Knorr Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Knorr Bremse's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Knorr Bremse Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Knorr BremseKnorr Bremse Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Knorr Bremse Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Knorr Bremse's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Knorr Bremse's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.80 and 96.26, respectively. We have considered Knorr Bremse's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.03
95.03
Expected Value
96.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Knorr Bremse pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Knorr Bremse pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1034
MADMean absolute deviation0.502
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0053
SAESum of the absolute errors29.62
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Knorr Bremse observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Knorr Bremse Aktiengesellschaft observations.

Predictive Modules for Knorr Bremse

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Knorr Bremse Aktieng. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
93.8095.0396.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
93.1894.4195.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
91.3494.0696.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Knorr Bremse. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Knorr Bremse's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Knorr Bremse's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Knorr Bremse Aktieng.

Other Forecasting Options for Knorr Bremse

For every potential investor in Knorr, whether a beginner or expert, Knorr Bremse's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Knorr Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Knorr. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Knorr Bremse's price trends.

Knorr Bremse Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Knorr Bremse pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Knorr Bremse could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Knorr Bremse by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Knorr Bremse Aktieng Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Knorr Bremse's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Knorr Bremse's current price.

Knorr Bremse Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Knorr Bremse pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Knorr Bremse shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Knorr Bremse pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Knorr Bremse Aktiengesellschaft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Knorr Bremse Risk Indicators

The analysis of Knorr Bremse's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Knorr Bremse's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting knorr pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Knorr Pink Sheet

Knorr Bremse financial ratios help investors to determine whether Knorr Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Knorr with respect to the benefits of owning Knorr Bremse security.