Lithium Americas Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| LAC Stock | USD 5.43 0.58 9.65% |
Lithium Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lithium Americas stock prices and determine the direction of Lithium Americas Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lithium Americas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Lithium Americas' share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lithium Americas, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lithium Americas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lithium Americas Corp from the perspective of Lithium Americas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lithium Americas Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.33. Lithium Americas after-hype prediction price | USD 5.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithium Americas to cross-verify your projections. Lithium Americas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lithium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lithium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lithium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lithium Americas Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lithium Americas Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lithium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lithium Americas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lithium Americas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lithium Americas | Lithium Americas Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lithium Americas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lithium Americas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lithium Americas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.13 and 10.31, respectively. We have considered Lithium Americas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lithium Americas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lithium Americas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8738 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0101 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2258 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.325 |
Predictive Modules for Lithium Americas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lithium Americas Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lithium Americas After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lithium Americas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lithium Americas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lithium Americas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lithium Americas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lithium Americas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lithium Americas' historical news coverage. Lithium Americas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.84 and 10.02, respectively. We have considered Lithium Americas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lithium Americas is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lithium Americas Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lithium Americas Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lithium Americas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lithium Americas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lithium Americas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 4.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.43 | 5.43 | 0.00 |
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Lithium Americas Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Lithium Americas Corp is traded for 5.43. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Lithium is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lithium Americas is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.43. About 20.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Lithium Americas was now reported as 1.96. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.08. Lithium Americas Corp last dividend was issued on the 8th of November 2017. The entity had 1:5 split on the 8th of November 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithium Americas to cross-verify your projections.Lithium Americas Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lithium Americas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lithium Americas' future price movements. Getting to know how Lithium Americas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lithium Americas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRML | Critical Metals Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.06 | 0.05 | 20.05 | (11.25) | 43.87 | |
| IPX | IperionX Limited American | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.39 | 0.08 | 7.31 | (7.07) | 16.07 | |
| LAR | Lithium Argentina AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.67 | 0.20 | 9.25 | (7.11) | 22.80 | |
| NAK | Northern Dynasty Minerals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.94 | 0.05 | 8.04 | (7.46) | 16.77 | |
| USAR | USA Rare Earth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.71 | 0.06 | 12.13 | (12.35) | 37.41 | |
| LOMA | Loma Negra Compania | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.91 | 0.04 | 4.91 | (3.54) | 12.03 | |
| VZLA | Vizsla Resources Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.62 | 0.21 | 7.64 | (7.09) | 26.88 | |
| GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.28 | 0 | 5.66 | (5.47) | 19.69 | |
| SLI | Standard Lithium | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.00 | 0.1 | 6.94 | (6.90) | 18.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lithium Americas
For every potential investor in Lithium, whether a beginner or expert, Lithium Americas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lithium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lithium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lithium Americas' price trends.Lithium Americas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lithium Americas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lithium Americas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lithium Americas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lithium Americas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lithium Americas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lithium Americas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lithium Americas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lithium Americas Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lithium Americas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lithium Americas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lithium Americas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lithium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.59 | |||
| Variance | 21.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lithium Americas
The number of cover stories for Lithium Americas depends on current market conditions and Lithium Americas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lithium Americas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lithium Americas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lithium Americas Short Properties
Lithium Americas' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lithium Americas' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lithium Americas Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lithium Americas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lithium Americas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 200.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 593.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithium Americas to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Lithium diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lithium Americas. Expected growth trajectory for Lithium significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lithium Americas data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Lithium Americas Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lithium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lithium Americas' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lithium Americas' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Lithium Americas' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lithium Americas' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Lithium Americas' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lithium Americas represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Lithium Americas' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.