BNY Mellon Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| LEO Stock | USD 6.50 0.03 0.46% |
BNY Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of BNY Mellon's stock price is about 64. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling BNY, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using BNY Mellon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BNY Mellon Strategic from the perspective of BNY Mellon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of BNY Mellon Strategic on the next trading day is expected to be 6.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44. BNY Mellon after-hype prediction price | USD 6.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BNY Mellon to cross-verify your projections. BNY Mellon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BNY price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BNY using various technical indicators. When you analyze BNY charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BNY Mellon Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of BNY Mellon Strategic on the next trading day is expected to be 6.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BNY Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BNY Mellon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BNY Mellon Stock Forecast Pattern
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BNY Mellon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BNY Mellon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BNY Mellon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.94 and 6.89, respectively. We have considered BNY Mellon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BNY Mellon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BNY Mellon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.0759 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.04 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0064 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4396 |
Predictive Modules for BNY Mellon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BNY Mellon Strategic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BNY Mellon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BNY Mellon After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BNY Mellon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BNY Mellon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BNY Mellon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BNY Mellon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BNY Mellon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BNY Mellon's historical news coverage. BNY Mellon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.03 and 6.97, respectively. We have considered BNY Mellon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BNY Mellon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BNY Mellon Strategic is based on 3 months time horizon.
BNY Mellon Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BNY Mellon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BNY Mellon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BNY Mellon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.50 | 6.50 | 0.00 |
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BNY Mellon Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January BNY Mellon Strategic is traded for 6.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. BNY is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on BNY Mellon is about 8460.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.50. About 50.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.93. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. BNY Mellon Strategic recorded a loss per share of 0.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of February 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BNY Mellon to cross-verify your projections.BNY Mellon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BNY Mellon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BNY Mellon's future price movements. Getting to know how BNY Mellon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BNY Mellon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOR | Source Capital Closed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.06 | 1.83 | (1.93) | 5.72 | |
| PSBD | Palmer Square Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.57 | (1.31) | 5.35 | |
| GIG | GigCapital7 Corp Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.43) | 0.19 | (0.28) | 1.03 | |
| MCI | Barings Corporate Investors | (0.07) | 2 per month | 1.19 | (0.01) | 2.26 | (2.31) | 8.35 | |
| SAR | Saratoga Investment Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.78 | 0.08 | 1.58 | (1.26) | 4.25 | |
| PNNT | PennantPark Investment | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.16 | (2.42) | 7.91 | |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1.45 | (1.64) | 45.03 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.07 | 2.09 | (1.51) | 9.50 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.09 | 2.04 | (1.70) | 6.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for BNY Mellon
For every potential investor in BNY, whether a beginner or expert, BNY Mellon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BNY Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BNY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BNY Mellon's price trends.BNY Mellon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BNY Mellon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BNY Mellon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BNY Mellon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BNY Mellon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BNY Mellon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BNY Mellon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BNY Mellon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BNY Mellon Strategic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
BNY Mellon Risk Indicators
The analysis of BNY Mellon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BNY Mellon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bny stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3501 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2319 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.474 | |||
| Variance | 0.2247 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.199 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0538 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for BNY Mellon
The number of cover stories for BNY Mellon depends on current market conditions and BNY Mellon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BNY Mellon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BNY Mellon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BNY Mellon Short Properties
BNY Mellon's future price predictability will typically decrease when BNY Mellon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BNY Mellon Strategic often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BNY Mellon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BNY Mellon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 106.6 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BNY Mellon to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could BNY diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BNY Mellon. Expected growth trajectory for BNY significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every BNY Mellon data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate BNY Mellon Strategic using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating BNY Mellon's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause BNY Mellon's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that BNY Mellon's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether BNY Mellon represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, BNY Mellon's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.