Middlefield Banc Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MBCN Stock | USD 33.23 0.29 0.88% |
Middlefield Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Middlefield Banc's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Middlefield Banc's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Middlefield Banc fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Middlefield Banc's share price is approaching 45. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Middlefield Banc, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.242 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.65 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.5833 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6 | Wall Street Target Price 34 |
Using Middlefield Banc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Middlefield Banc from the perspective of Middlefield Banc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Middlefield Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.23. Middlefield Banc after-hype prediction price | USD 33.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Middlefield Banc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Middlefield price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Middlefield using various technical indicators. When you analyze Middlefield charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Middlefield Banc Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Middlefield Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Middlefield Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Middlefield Banc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Middlefield Banc Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Middlefield Banc | Middlefield Banc Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Middlefield Banc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Middlefield Banc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Middlefield Banc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.36 and 37.35, respectively. We have considered Middlefield Banc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Middlefield Banc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Middlefield Banc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4038 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.028 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 60.2329 |
Predictive Modules for Middlefield Banc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Middlefield Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Middlefield Banc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Middlefield Banc After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Middlefield Banc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Middlefield Banc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Middlefield Banc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Middlefield Banc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Middlefield Banc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Middlefield Banc's historical news coverage. Middlefield Banc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.25 and 35.21, respectively. We have considered Middlefield Banc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Middlefield Banc is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Middlefield Banc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Middlefield Banc Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Middlefield Banc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Middlefield Banc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Middlefield Banc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
33.23 | 33.23 | 0.00 |
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Middlefield Banc Hype Timeline
Middlefield Banc is now traded for 33.23. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Middlefield is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Middlefield Banc is about 3125.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.23. About 35.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.19. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Middlefield Banc last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 12th of November 2019. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Middlefield Banc to cross-verify your projections.Middlefield Banc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Middlefield Banc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Middlefield Banc's future price movements. Getting to know how Middlefield Banc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Middlefield Banc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JMSB | John Marshall Bancorp | 0.07 | 8 per month | 1.78 | 0.03 | 3.37 | (2.77) | 15.99 | |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services | 0.65 | 8 per month | 1.77 | 0.06 | 4.15 | (2.86) | 10.38 | |
| NECB | Northeast Community Bancorp | 0.09 | 11 per month | 1.43 | 0.08 | 3.45 | (2.36) | 7.53 | |
| COSO | CoastalSouth Bancshares | (0.34) | 21 per month | 0.85 | 0.09 | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.77 | |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | (0.32) | 6 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 3.45 | (1.95) | 8.74 | |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp | 0.45 | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.13 | 2.96 | (1.56) | 9.02 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | (0.46) | 9 per month | 1.24 | 0.03 | 3.44 | (2.04) | 7.07 | |
| LNKB | LINKBANCORP | 0.33 | 7 per month | 1.42 | 0.15 | 3.66 | (2.16) | 8.31 | |
| FINW | Finwise Bancorp | 0.14 | 9 per month | 1.30 | (0.02) | 2.79 | (2.19) | 7.91 | |
| WSBF | Waterstone Financial | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.98 | 0.14 | 2.59 | (2.52) | 8.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Middlefield Banc
For every potential investor in Middlefield, whether a beginner or expert, Middlefield Banc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Middlefield Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Middlefield. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Middlefield Banc's price trends.Middlefield Banc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Middlefield Banc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Middlefield Banc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Middlefield Banc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Middlefield Banc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Middlefield Banc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Middlefield Banc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Middlefield Banc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Middlefield Banc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Middlefield Banc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Middlefield Banc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Middlefield Banc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting middlefield stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Middlefield Banc
The number of cover stories for Middlefield Banc depends on current market conditions and Middlefield Banc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Middlefield Banc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Middlefield Banc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Middlefield Banc Short Properties
Middlefield Banc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Middlefield Banc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Middlefield Banc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Middlefield Banc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Middlefield Banc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 211.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Middlefield Banc to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Middlefield Stock, please use our How to Invest in Middlefield Banc guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Middlefield diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Middlefield Banc. Expected growth trajectory for Middlefield significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Middlefield Banc data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.242 | Dividend Share 0.83 | Earnings Share 2.61 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.336 |
Understanding Middlefield Banc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Middlefield's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Middlefield Banc's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Middlefield Banc's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Middlefield Banc's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Middlefield Banc represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Middlefield Banc's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.