Manitowoc Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MTW Stock | USD 12.93 0.23 1.81% |
Manitowoc Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Manitowoc's share price is at 53. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Manitowoc, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Manitowoc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Manitowoc from the perspective of Manitowoc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Manitowoc on the next trading day is expected to be 13.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.28. Manitowoc after-hype prediction price | USD 12.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Manitowoc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Manitowoc price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Manitowoc using various technical indicators. When you analyze Manitowoc charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Manitowoc Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Manitowoc on the next trading day is expected to be 13.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manitowoc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manitowoc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Manitowoc Stock Forecast Pattern
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Manitowoc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Manitowoc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manitowoc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.38 and 16.52, respectively. We have considered Manitowoc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manitowoc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manitowoc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8002 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4472 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0369 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.2792 |
Predictive Modules for Manitowoc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manitowoc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Manitowoc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Manitowoc After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Manitowoc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Manitowoc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Manitowoc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Manitowoc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Manitowoc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Manitowoc's historical news coverage. Manitowoc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.36 and 15.50, respectively. We have considered Manitowoc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Manitowoc is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Manitowoc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Manitowoc Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Manitowoc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Manitowoc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Manitowoc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 2.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.93 | 12.93 | 0.00 |
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Manitowoc Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Manitowoc is traded for 12.93. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Manitowoc is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.43%. %. The volatility of related hype on Manitowoc is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.93. About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.68. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Manitowoc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.64. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2015. The firm had 1:4 split on the 20th of November 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Manitowoc to cross-verify your projections.Manitowoc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Manitowoc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Manitowoc's future price movements. Getting to know how Manitowoc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Manitowoc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WNC | Wabash National | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.02 | 0.12 | 5.40 | (3.47) | 16.28 | |
| ACCO | Acco Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.90 | 0.02 | 3.25 | (2.72) | 9.71 | |
| JELD | Jeld Wen Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 9.36 | (10.14) | 31.31 | |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.64 | 0.03 | 5.19 | (3.38) | 12.21 | |
| PKOH | Park Ohio Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.61 | 0.04 | 4.77 | (3.60) | 14.74 | |
| SBC | SBC Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.13 | 0.13 | 6.43 | (3.14) | 16.73 | |
| GWAV | Greenwave Technology Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 13.98 | (10.02) | 34.22 | |
| LXFR | Luxfer Holdings PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.18 | 2.77 | (2.58) | 6.05 | |
| KNOP | KNOT Offshore Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.11 | 4.31 | (2.13) | 12.63 | |
| BW | Babcock Wilcox Enterprises | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.51 | 0.25 | 13.18 | (7.60) | 44.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Manitowoc
For every potential investor in Manitowoc, whether a beginner or expert, Manitowoc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manitowoc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manitowoc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manitowoc's price trends.Manitowoc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manitowoc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manitowoc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manitowoc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Manitowoc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Manitowoc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Manitowoc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Manitowoc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Manitowoc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Manitowoc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Manitowoc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manitowoc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting manitowoc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Variance | 6.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Manitowoc
The number of cover stories for Manitowoc depends on current market conditions and Manitowoc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Manitowoc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Manitowoc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Manitowoc Short Properties
Manitowoc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Manitowoc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Manitowoc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Manitowoc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Manitowoc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48 M |
Additional Tools for Manitowoc Stock Analysis
When running Manitowoc's price analysis, check to measure Manitowoc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Manitowoc is operating at the current time. Most of Manitowoc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Manitowoc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Manitowoc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Manitowoc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.