Pegasystems Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PEGA Stock | USD 44.62 4.73 9.58% |
Pegasystems Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pegasystems stock prices and determine the direction of Pegasystems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pegasystems' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Pegasystems' share price is below 30 at this time indicating that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pegasystems, making its price go up or down. Momentum 29
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pegasystems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pegasystems from the perspective of Pegasystems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pegasystems on the next trading day is expected to be 44.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.12. Pegasystems after-hype prediction price | USD 44.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Pegasystems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pegasystems price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pegasystems using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pegasystems charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pegasystems Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pegasystems on the next trading day is expected to be 44.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15, mean absolute percentage error of 2.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pegasystems Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pegasystems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pegasystems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pegasystems | Pegasystems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pegasystems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pegasystems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pegasystems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.89 and 47.35, respectively. We have considered Pegasystems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pegasystems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pegasystems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1335 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3167 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.152 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0208 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 69.12 |
Predictive Modules for Pegasystems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pegasystems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pegasystems After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pegasystems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pegasystems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pegasystems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pegasystems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pegasystems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pegasystems' historical news coverage. Pegasystems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.89 and 47.35, respectively. We have considered Pegasystems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pegasystems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pegasystems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pegasystems Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pegasystems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pegasystems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pegasystems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 2.73 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.62 | 44.62 | 0.00 |
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Pegasystems Hype Timeline
Pegasystems is at this time traded for 44.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.14. Pegasystems is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.54%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pegasystems is about 1054.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.48. About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.77. Pegasystems last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 23rd of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pegasystems to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Pegasystems Stock refer to our How to Trade Pegasystems Stock guide.Pegasystems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pegasystems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pegasystems' future price movements. Getting to know how Pegasystems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pegasystems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MANH | Manhattan Associates | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.51 | (4.09) | 8.34 | |
| GTM | ZoomInfo Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.11 | (5.51) | 16.16 | |
| PAYC | Paycom Software | (2.59) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 2.32 | (3.80) | 11.72 | |
| IDCC | InterDigital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.47 | (3.96) | 17.55 | |
| OTEX | Open Text Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 1.45 | (3.73) | 7.58 | |
| APPF | Appfolio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.08 | (3.82) | 7.36 | |
| AKAM | Akamai Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.60 | 0.16 | 4.04 | (2.80) | 18.87 | |
| DAY | Dayforce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.06 | (0.36) | 0.28 | (0.20) | 0.61 | |
| QXO | QXO Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.44 | 0.11 | 5.47 | (3.35) | 22.99 | |
| MNDY | MondayCom | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 2.90 | (6.35) | 17.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pegasystems
For every potential investor in Pegasystems, whether a beginner or expert, Pegasystems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pegasystems Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pegasystems. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pegasystems' price trends.Pegasystems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pegasystems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pegasystems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pegasystems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pegasystems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pegasystems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pegasystems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pegasystems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pegasystems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 320673.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.9 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.36 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.47) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.73) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 29.49 |
Pegasystems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pegasystems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pegasystems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pegasystems stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Variance | 7.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pegasystems
The number of cover stories for Pegasystems depends on current market conditions and Pegasystems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pegasystems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pegasystems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pegasystems Short Properties
Pegasystems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Pegasystems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pegasystems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pegasystems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pegasystems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 179.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 740 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pegasystems to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Pegasystems Stock refer to our How to Trade Pegasystems Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pegasystems. Anticipated expansion of Pegasystems directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Pegasystems assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate Pegasystems using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Pegasystems' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Pegasystems' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Pegasystems' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Pegasystems should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Pegasystems' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.