Packaging Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PKG Stock | USD 220.00 2.89 1.33% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Packaging Corp of on the next trading day is expected to be 220.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.61. Packaging Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Packaging Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Packaging Corp's stock price is roughly 60 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 23rd of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Packaging, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.6011 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.9373 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.1405 | Wall Street Target Price 228.7 |
Using Packaging Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Packaging Corp of from the perspective of Packaging Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Packaging Corp using Packaging Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Packaging using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Packaging Corp's stock price.
Packaging Corp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Packaging Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Packaging. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Packaging Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 200.7614 | Short Percent 0.0381 | Short Ratio 3.2 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 205.125 |
Packaging Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Packaging Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Packaging. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Packaging can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Packaging Corp of. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Packaging Corp Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Packaging Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Packaging Corp of stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Packaging Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Packaging Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Packaging Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Packaging Corp of on the next trading day is expected to be 220.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.61. Packaging Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 220.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Packaging | Build AI portfolio with Packaging Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Packaging contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Packaging Corp of will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Packaging Corp trading at USD 220.0, that is roughly USD 0.0509 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Packaging Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Packaging Corp of options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Packaging Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Packaging Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Packaging Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Packaging Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Packaging Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Packaging Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Packaging Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Packaging. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Packaging Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Packaging price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Packaging using various technical indicators. When you analyze Packaging charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Packaging Corp Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Packaging Corp's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-12-31 | Previous Quarter 787.9 M | Current Value 634 M | Quarterly Volatility 287.1 M |
Packaging Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Packaging Corp of on the next trading day is expected to be 220.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.42, mean absolute percentage error of 9.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Packaging Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Packaging Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Packaging Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Packaging Corp | Packaging Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Packaging Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Packaging Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Packaging Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 218.49 and 221.72, respectively. We have considered Packaging Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Packaging Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Packaging Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3256 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4199 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 147.6139 |
Predictive Modules for Packaging Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Packaging Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Packaging Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Packaging Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Packaging Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Packaging Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Packaging Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Packaging Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Packaging Corp's historical news coverage. Packaging Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 218.39 and 221.61, respectively. We have considered Packaging Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Packaging Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Packaging Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Packaging Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Packaging Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Packaging Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Packaging Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.62 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
220.00 | 220.00 | 0.00 |
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Packaging Corp Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Packaging Corp is traded for 220.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.39, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Packaging is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 53.82%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Packaging Corp is about 2250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 219.99. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Packaging Corp was at this time reported as 53.21. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.64. Packaging Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Packaging Corp to cross-verify your projections.Packaging Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Packaging Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Packaging Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Packaging Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Packaging Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SW | Smurfit WestRock plc | 3.01 | 13 per month | 2.70 | (0.02) | 3.71 | (3.37) | 14.18 | |
| AMCR | Amcor PLC | 0.24 | 4 per month | 1.77 | 0 | 2.00 | (1.88) | 10.51 | |
| IP | International Paper | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.10 | (3.90) | 15.48 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | 0.24 | 12 per month | 1.31 | (0.03) | 2.82 | (1.86) | 7.35 | |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | 0.10 | 12 per month | 1.35 | 0.1 | 3.01 | (2.09) | 7.45 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | (2.86) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.13 | (3.41) | 14.16 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | 0.24 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.36 | (2.85) | 10.22 | |
| BURL | Burlington Stores | 3.01 | 21 per month | 3.03 | 0.02 | 4.29 | (3.49) | 17.25 | |
| YUMC | Yum China Holdings | (0.66) | 10 per month | 1.16 | 0.07 | 2.76 | (1.97) | 5.51 | |
| CCK | Crown Holdings | (3.83) | 25 per month | 1.50 | 0.03 | 2.73 | (2.36) | 9.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Packaging Corp
For every potential investor in Packaging, whether a beginner or expert, Packaging Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Packaging Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Packaging. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Packaging Corp's price trends.Packaging Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Packaging Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Packaging Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Packaging Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Packaging Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Packaging Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Packaging Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Packaging Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Packaging Corp of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Packaging Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Packaging Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Packaging Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting packaging stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Variance | 2.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Packaging Corp
The number of cover stories for Packaging Corp depends on current market conditions and Packaging Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Packaging Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Packaging Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Packaging Corp Short Properties
Packaging Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Packaging Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Packaging Corp of often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Packaging Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Packaging Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 787 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Packaging Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Packaging Corp. If investors know Packaging will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Packaging Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Dividend Share 5 | Earnings Share 9.9 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.06 |
The market value of Packaging Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Packaging that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Packaging Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Packaging Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Packaging Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Packaging Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Packaging Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Packaging Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Packaging Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.