Perdana Karya Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| PKPK Stock | IDR 316.00 2.00 0.64% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Perdana Karya Perkasa on the next trading day is expected to be 307.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 191.59. Perdana Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Perdana Karya stock prices and determine the direction of Perdana Karya Perkasa's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Perdana Karya's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perdana Karya to cross-verify your projections. Perdana |
Most investors in Perdana Karya cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Perdana Karya's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Perdana Karya's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Perdana Karya polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Perdana Karya Perkasa as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Perdana Karya Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Perdana Karya Perkasa on the next trading day is expected to be 307.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.14, mean absolute percentage error of 16.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 191.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Perdana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Perdana Karya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Perdana Karya Stock Forecast Pattern
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Perdana Karya Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Perdana Karya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Perdana Karya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 306.05 and 308.76, respectively. We have considered Perdana Karya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Perdana Karya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Perdana Karya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.9291 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1408 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0094 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 191.5917 |
Predictive Modules for Perdana Karya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perdana Karya Perkasa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perdana Karya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Perdana Karya
For every potential investor in Perdana, whether a beginner or expert, Perdana Karya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Perdana Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Perdana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Perdana Karya's price trends.Perdana Karya Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Perdana Karya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Perdana Karya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Perdana Karya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Perdana Karya Perkasa Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Perdana Karya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Perdana Karya's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Perdana Karya Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Perdana Karya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Perdana Karya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Perdana Karya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Perdana Karya Perkasa entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Perdana Karya Risk Indicators
The analysis of Perdana Karya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Perdana Karya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting perdana stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9089 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.74 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Perdana Karya Perkasa using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perdana Karya to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Perdana Stock analysis
When running Perdana Karya's price analysis, check to measure Perdana Karya's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Perdana Karya is operating at the current time. Most of Perdana Karya's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Perdana Karya's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Perdana Karya's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Perdana Karya to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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