Insulet Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
PODD Stock | USD 177.01 7.27 3.95% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Insulet on the next trading day is expected to be 178.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 291.84. Insulet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Insulet stock prices and determine the direction of Insulet's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Insulet's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Insulet's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Insulet's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Insulet fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insulet to cross-verify your projections. Insulet |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Insulet Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Insulet's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Insulet's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Insulet stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Insulet's open interest, investors have to compare it to Insulet's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Insulet is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Insulet. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Insulet cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Insulet's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Insulet's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Insulet is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Insulet 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Insulet on the next trading day is expected to be 178.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.12, mean absolute percentage error of 48.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 291.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Insulet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Insulet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Insulet Stock Forecast Pattern
Backtest Insulet | Insulet Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Insulet Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Insulet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Insulet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 175.61 and 180.45, respectively. We have considered Insulet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Insulet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Insulet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6345 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4934 |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.12 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 291.8375 |
Predictive Modules for Insulet
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Insulet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Insulet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Insulet
For every potential investor in Insulet, whether a beginner or expert, Insulet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Insulet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Insulet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Insulet's price trends.Insulet Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Insulet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Insulet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Insulet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Insulet Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Insulet's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Insulet's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Insulet Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Insulet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Insulet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Insulet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Insulet entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
Day Median Price | 177.01 | |||
Day Typical Price | 177.01 | |||
Price Action Indicator | (3.64) | |||
Period Momentum Indicator | (7.27) |
Insulet Risk Indicators
The analysis of Insulet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Insulet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting insulet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
Standard Deviation | 2.32 | |||
Variance | 5.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Insulet Investors Sentiment
The influence of Insulet's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Insulet. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Insulet's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Insulet. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Insulet can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Insulet. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Insulet's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Insulet's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Insulet's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Insulet.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Insulet in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Insulet's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Insulet options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Insulet using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Insulet to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Insulet Stock refer to our How to Trade Insulet Stock guide.Note that the Insulet information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Insulet's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for Insulet Stock analysis
When running Insulet's price analysis, check to measure Insulet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Insulet is operating at the current time. Most of Insulet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Insulet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Insulet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Insulet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance |
Is Insulet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Insulet. If investors know Insulet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Insulet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.043 | Earnings Share 2.95 | Revenue Per Share 24.331 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.379 | Return On Assets 0.0609 |
The market value of Insulet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Insulet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Insulet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Insulet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Insulet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Insulet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Insulet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Insulet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Insulet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.