Origin Agritech Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| SEED Stock | USD 1.27 0.01 0.79% |
Origin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Origin Agritech stock prices and determine the direction of Origin Agritech's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Origin Agritech's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Origin Agritech's share price is approaching 45. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Origin Agritech, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Origin Agritech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Agritech from the perspective of Origin Agritech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Origin Agritech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.88. Origin Agritech after-hype prediction price | USD 1.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Agritech to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.Origin Agritech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Agritech Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Origin Agritech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Agritech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Origin Agritech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Agritech | Origin Agritech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Origin Agritech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Origin Agritech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Origin Agritech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.82, respectively. We have considered Origin Agritech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Agritech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Agritech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.881 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0965 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0733 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.8835 |
Predictive Modules for Origin Agritech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Agritech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Agritech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Origin Agritech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Origin Agritech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Origin Agritech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Origin Agritech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Origin Agritech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Origin Agritech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Origin Agritech's historical news coverage. Origin Agritech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 5.90, respectively. We have considered Origin Agritech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Origin Agritech is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Origin Agritech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Origin Agritech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Origin Agritech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Agritech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Origin Agritech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 4.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.27 | 1.27 | 0.00 |
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Origin Agritech Hype Timeline
Origin Agritech is at this time traded for 1.27. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Origin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Origin Agritech is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.27. About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.08. Origin Agritech last dividend was issued on the 10th of July 2018. The entity had 1:10 split on the 10th of July 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Agritech to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.Origin Agritech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Origin Agritech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Origin Agritech's future price movements. Getting to know how Origin Agritech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Origin Agritech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JCTC | Jewett Cameron Trading | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 7.80 | (7.66) | 23.52 | |
| ZKIN | ZK International Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 13.46 | (10.05) | 44.31 | |
| RKDA | Arcadia Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.59 | (11.64) | 25.74 | |
| FMSTW | Foremost Lithium Resource | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.79 | 0.03 | 18.75 | (13.54) | 41.70 | |
| INHD | Inno Holdings Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 10.50 | (21.87) | 50.62 | |
| NITO | N2OFF Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 7.69 | (10.64) | 30.79 | |
| ENFY | Enlightify | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 22.22 | (20.00) | 73.68 | |
| GURE | Gulf Resources Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 9.63 | 0.05 | 37.41 | (21.26) | 105.51 | |
| ASTL | Algoma Steel Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.56 | 0.04 | 7.14 | (5.51) | 18.39 | |
| YMAT | J Star Holding Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 9.43 | (10.71) | 24.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Origin Agritech
For every potential investor in Origin, whether a beginner or expert, Origin Agritech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Origin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Origin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Origin Agritech's price trends.Origin Agritech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Origin Agritech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Origin Agritech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Agritech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Agritech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Origin Agritech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Origin Agritech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Origin Agritech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Origin Agritech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Origin Agritech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Origin Agritech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Origin Agritech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting origin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.63 | |||
| Variance | 21.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Origin Agritech
The number of cover stories for Origin Agritech depends on current market conditions and Origin Agritech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Origin Agritech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Origin Agritech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Origin Agritech Short Properties
Origin Agritech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Origin Agritech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Origin Agritech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Origin Agritech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Agritech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Agritech to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Origin diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Agritech. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Origin Agritech data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Origin Agritech using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Origin Agritech's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Origin Agritech's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Agritech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Agritech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Origin Agritech's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.