SenesTech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SNES Stock | USD 1.90 0.02 1.04% |
SenesTech Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of SenesTech's share price is approaching 32. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling SenesTech, making its price go up or down. Momentum 32
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.33) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.73) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.11) | Wall Street Target Price 10 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.35) |
Using SenesTech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SenesTech from the perspective of SenesTech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SenesTech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.32. SenesTech after-hype prediction price | USD 1.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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SenesTech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SenesTech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SenesTech using various technical indicators. When you analyze SenesTech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the SenesTech's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2014-12-31 | Previous Quarter 6.1 M | Current Value 7.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 3.6 M |
SenesTech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SenesTech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SenesTech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SenesTech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SenesTech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SenesTech | SenesTech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SenesTech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SenesTech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SenesTech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.03, respectively. We have considered SenesTech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SenesTech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SenesTech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1102 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1019 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.3205 |
Predictive Modules for SenesTech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SenesTech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SenesTech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SenesTech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SenesTech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SenesTech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SenesTech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SenesTech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SenesTech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SenesTech's historical news coverage. SenesTech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 6.06, respectively. We have considered SenesTech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SenesTech is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SenesTech is based on 3 months time horizon.
SenesTech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SenesTech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SenesTech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SenesTech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.84 | 4.20 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 2 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.90 | 1.90 | 0.00 |
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SenesTech Hype Timeline
SenesTech is at this time traded for 1.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. SenesTech is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.84%. %. The volatility of related hype on SenesTech is about 4615.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.82. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.9. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. SenesTech recorded a loss per share of 2.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of February 2020. The firm had 1:10 split on the 25th of July 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SenesTech to cross-verify your projections.SenesTech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SenesTech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SenesTech's future price movements. Getting to know how SenesTech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SenesTech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YMAT | J Star Holding Co | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.64 | (10.71) | 33.67 | |
| ASTL | Algoma Steel Group | (0.12) | 8 per month | 3.64 | (0) | 7.14 | (6.12) | 18.39 | |
| ELBM | Electra Battery Materials | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 9.47 | (9.52) | 27.03 | |
| STAI | ScanTech AI Systems | (0.15) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 12.65 | (13.75) | 53.71 | |
| BGL | Blue Gold Limited | (0.15) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 13.74 | (15.77) | 113.54 | |
| GURE | Gulf Resources Common | (0.78) | 11 per month | 9.24 | 0.05 | 20.00 | (17.24) | 105.51 | |
| HUDI | Huadi International Group | 0.51 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.74 | (7.09) | 15.47 | |
| CNEY | CN Energy Group | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 8.20 | (10.27) | 66.67 | |
| ZKIN | ZK International Group | 0.35 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 13.49 | (10.05) | 44.31 | |
| AUST | Austin Gold Corp | (0.60) | 14 per month | 4.37 | 0.12 | 11.38 | (8.74) | 25.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for SenesTech
For every potential investor in SenesTech, whether a beginner or expert, SenesTech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SenesTech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SenesTech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SenesTech's price trends.SenesTech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SenesTech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SenesTech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SenesTech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SenesTech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SenesTech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SenesTech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SenesTech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SenesTech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SenesTech Risk Indicators
The analysis of SenesTech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SenesTech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting senestech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Variance | 16.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SenesTech
The number of cover stories for SenesTech depends on current market conditions and SenesTech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SenesTech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SenesTech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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SenesTech Short Properties
SenesTech's future price predictability will typically decrease when SenesTech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SenesTech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SenesTech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SenesTech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 698 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 M |
Additional Tools for SenesTech Stock Analysis
When running SenesTech's price analysis, check to measure SenesTech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SenesTech is operating at the current time. Most of SenesTech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SenesTech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SenesTech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SenesTech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.