Virgin Galactic Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SPCE Stock | USD 2.93 0.10 3.30% |
Virgin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Virgin Galactic stock prices and determine the direction of Virgin Galactic Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Virgin Galactic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Virgin Galactic's share price is approaching 42. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Virgin Galactic, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Virgin Galactic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virgin Galactic Holdings from the perspective of Virgin Galactic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virgin Galactic Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 2.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.65. Virgin Galactic after-hype prediction price | USD 2.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virgin Galactic to cross-verify your projections. Virgin Galactic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virgin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virgin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virgin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virgin Galactic Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virgin Galactic Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 2.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virgin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virgin Galactic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virgin Galactic Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virgin Galactic | Virgin Galactic Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Virgin Galactic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virgin Galactic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virgin Galactic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.71, respectively. We have considered Virgin Galactic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virgin Galactic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virgin Galactic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0214 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1465 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0419 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.6457 |
Predictive Modules for Virgin Galactic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virgin Galactic Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virgin Galactic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Virgin Galactic After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virgin Galactic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virgin Galactic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Virgin Galactic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virgin Galactic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virgin Galactic's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virgin Galactic's historical news coverage. Virgin Galactic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 7.72, respectively. We have considered Virgin Galactic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virgin Galactic is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virgin Galactic Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virgin Galactic Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Virgin Galactic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virgin Galactic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virgin Galactic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 4.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.93 | 2.93 | 0.00 |
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Virgin Galactic Hype Timeline
Virgin Galactic Holdings is at this time traded for 2.93. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Virgin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on Virgin Galactic is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.93. About 18.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.98. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Virgin Galactic Holdings recorded a loss per share of 6.84. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:20 split on the 17th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virgin Galactic to cross-verify your projections.Virgin Galactic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virgin Galactic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virgin Galactic's future price movements. Getting to know how Virgin Galactic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virgin Galactic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POWW | Ammo Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.93 | 0.01 | 5.59 | (4.71) | 14.96 | |
| NVX | Novonix Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.92 | (10.26) | 33.61 | |
| VWAV | VisionWave Holdings Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.94 | (10.78) | 30.64 | |
| PAMT | PAMT P | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.26 | 0.04 | 6.06 | (6.15) | 17.24 | |
| PAL | Proficient Auto Logistics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.94 | 0.1 | 6.89 | (5.17) | 38.71 | |
| FC | Franklin Covey | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | 0.10 | 5.11 | (3.48) | 15.18 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.77 | 0.22 | 9.75 | (4.29) | 38.98 | |
| FCEL | FuelCell Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.66 | 0.02 | 11.76 | (9.07) | 35.51 | |
| SHMD | SCHMID Group NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.79 | 0.18 | 16.73 | (10.85) | 40.89 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.53 | 0.05 | 6.44 | (4.73) | 15.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Virgin Galactic
For every potential investor in Virgin, whether a beginner or expert, Virgin Galactic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virgin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virgin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virgin Galactic's price trends.Virgin Galactic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virgin Galactic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virgin Galactic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virgin Galactic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virgin Galactic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virgin Galactic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virgin Galactic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virgin Galactic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Virgin Galactic Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 317617.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.56) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.95 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.09 |
Virgin Galactic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virgin Galactic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virgin Galactic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virgin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.79 | |||
| Variance | 22.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Virgin Galactic
The number of cover stories for Virgin Galactic depends on current market conditions and Virgin Galactic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virgin Galactic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virgin Galactic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Virgin Galactic Short Properties
Virgin Galactic's future price predictability will typically decrease when Virgin Galactic's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Virgin Galactic Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Virgin Galactic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virgin Galactic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 563.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virgin Galactic to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Virgin diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Virgin Galactic. If investors know Virgin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Virgin Galactic data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Virgin Galactic Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Virgin's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Virgin Galactic's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Virgin Galactic's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virgin Galactic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virgin Galactic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Virgin Galactic's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.