Triumph Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TFIN Stock | 70.73 0.03 0.04% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 73.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.73. Triumph Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Triumph Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Triumph Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Triumph Financial fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Triumph Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.305 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.565 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.744 | Wall Street Target Price 66 |
Using Triumph Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triumph Financial from the perspective of Triumph Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Triumph Financial using Triumph Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Triumph using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Triumph Financial's stock price.
Triumph Financial Short Interest
An investor who is long Triumph Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Triumph Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Triumph Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 57.4938 | Short Percent 0.1723 | Short Ratio 10.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 60.3402 |
Triumph Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Triumph Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Triumph. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Triumph can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Triumph Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Triumph Financial Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Triumph Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Triumph Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Triumph Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Triumph Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Triumph Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 73.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.73. Triumph Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 70.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triumph Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Triumph contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Triumph Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Triumph Financial trading at USD 70.73, that is roughly USD 0.019 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Triumph Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Triumph Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Triumph Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Triumph Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Triumph Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Triumph Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Triumph Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Triumph Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Triumph Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Triumph. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Triumph Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Triumph price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triumph using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triumph charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triumph Financial Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Triumph Financial's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2013-12-31 | Previous Quarter 282.3 M | Current Value 147.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 159.9 M |
Triumph Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 73.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17, mean absolute percentage error of 2.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triumph Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triumph Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Triumph Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Triumph Financial | Triumph Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Triumph Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Triumph Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triumph Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.71 and 75.61, respectively. We have considered Triumph Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triumph Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triumph Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6578 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1731 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.7303 |
Predictive Modules for Triumph Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triumph Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Triumph Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Triumph Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triumph Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triumph Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Triumph Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Triumph Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triumph Financial's historical news coverage. Triumph Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.30 and 73.16, respectively. We have considered Triumph Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Triumph Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triumph Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Triumph Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triumph Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triumph Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triumph Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.45 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
70.73 | 70.73 | 0.00 |
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Triumph Financial Hype Timeline
Triumph Financial is at this time traded for 70.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Triumph is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Triumph Financial is about 40833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.73. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.92. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Triumph Financial had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triumph Financial to cross-verify your projections.Triumph Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Triumph Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triumph Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Triumph Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triumph Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | (0.61) | 29 per month | 3.36 | (0) | 3.49 | (1.89) | 19.19 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 1.02 | 11 per month | 0.65 | 0.11 | 3.15 | (1.45) | 5.24 | |
| PFBC | Preferred Bank | (0.39) | 11 per month | 1.55 | 0.02 | 2.57 | (2.01) | 8.81 | |
| OBK | Origin Bancorp | (0.17) | 9 per month | 0.88 | 0.19 | 2.92 | (1.83) | 6.80 | |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp | (0.1) | 11 per month | 0.94 | 0.10 | 3.16 | (1.95) | 6.51 | |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp | (0.26) | 11 per month | 2.00 | 0.03 | 3.73 | (2.24) | 12.81 | |
| WABC | Westamerica Bancorporation | 0.14 | 41 per month | 1.02 | 0.04 | 2.97 | (1.77) | 6.95 | |
| CNOB | ConnectOne Bancorp | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.78 | 0.14 | 3.61 | (1.50) | 6.62 | |
| QCRH | QCR Holdings | (0.08) | 7 per month | 0.86 | 0.21 | 3.55 | (1.54) | 7.77 | |
| RBCAA | Republic Bancorp | 0.36 | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0 | 3.24 | (2.40) | 7.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Triumph Financial
For every potential investor in Triumph, whether a beginner or expert, Triumph Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triumph Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triumph. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triumph Financial's price trends.Triumph Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triumph Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triumph Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triumph Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Triumph Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triumph Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triumph Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triumph Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triumph Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6616.31 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0129 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 71.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 71.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.03 |
Triumph Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Triumph Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Triumph Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting triumph stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Triumph Financial
The number of cover stories for Triumph Financial depends on current market conditions and Triumph Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triumph Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triumph Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Triumph Financial Short Properties
Triumph Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Triumph Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Triumph Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Triumph Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triumph Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 416.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triumph Financial to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Triumph Stock, please use our How to Invest in Triumph Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph Financial. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Earnings Share 0.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Triumph Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.