Triumph Financial Stock Forward View
| TFINP Stock | 22.25 3,650 99.39% |
Triumph Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Triumph Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Triumph Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Triumph Financial fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Triumph Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 18
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.875 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 |
Using Triumph Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triumph Financial from the perspective of Triumph Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 69.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 292.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17,844. Triumph Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 22.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triumph Financial to cross-verify your projections. Triumph Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Triumph price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triumph using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triumph charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triumph Financial Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Triumph Financial's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2013-12-31 | Previous Quarter 147.2 M | Current Value 248.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 158.3 M |
Triumph Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triumph Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 69.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 292.52, mean absolute percentage error of 337,149, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17,844.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triumph Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triumph Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Triumph Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Triumph Financial | Triumph Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Triumph Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Triumph Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triumph Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.22 and 199.51, respectively. We have considered Triumph Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triumph Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triumph Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 130.8388 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 292.5216 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 4.2964 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17843.8189 |
Predictive Modules for Triumph Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triumph Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Triumph Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Triumph Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triumph Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triumph Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Triumph Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Triumph Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triumph Financial's historical news coverage. Triumph Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.11 and 2,247, respectively. We have considered Triumph Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Triumph Financial is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triumph Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Triumph Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triumph Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triumph Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triumph Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
13.14 | 129.70 | 10.77 | 0.85 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.25 | 22.25 | 0.00 |
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Triumph Financial Hype Timeline
Triumph Financial is at this time traded for 22.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -10.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.85. Triumph is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 13.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Triumph Financial is about 199538.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.40. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of June 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triumph Financial to cross-verify your projections.Triumph Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Triumph Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triumph Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Triumph Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triumph Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMNB | American National Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MCBC | Macatawa Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares | 0.43 | 6 per month | 1.37 | 0.09 | 3.13 | (2.27) | 8.97 | |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp | (0.08) | 7 per month | 2.29 | (0.02) | 3.33 | (3.00) | 11.98 | |
| LBC | Luther Burbank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | (0.82) | 8 per month | 1.59 | 0.15 | 4.14 | (2.97) | 13.19 | |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares | (0.18) | 7 per month | 1.37 | 0.04 | 2.66 | (2.38) | 9.13 | |
| CSTR | Capstar Financial Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FRC | FIRST REP BK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PDOT | Peridot Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Triumph Financial
For every potential investor in Triumph, whether a beginner or expert, Triumph Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triumph Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triumph. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triumph Financial's price trends.Triumph Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triumph Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triumph Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triumph Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Triumph Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triumph Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triumph Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triumph Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triumph Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.0061 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1,825) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3,650) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 18.25 |
Triumph Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Triumph Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Triumph Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting triumph stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 478.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1975.48 | |||
| Variance | 3902509.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 659.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 65.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (486.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Triumph Financial
The number of cover stories for Triumph Financial depends on current market conditions and Triumph Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triumph Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triumph Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Triumph Stock Analysis
When running Triumph Financial's price analysis, check to measure Triumph Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Triumph Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Triumph Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Triumph Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Triumph Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Triumph Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.