Werner Enterprises Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WERN Stock | USD 34.74 0.34 0.97% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Werner Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 34.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.20. Werner Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Werner Enterprises stock prices and determine the direction of Werner Enterprises's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Werner Enterprises' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Werner Enterprises' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Werner Enterprises' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Werner Enterprises fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Werner Enterprises to cross-verify your projections. Werner |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Werner Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Werner Enterprises' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Werner Enterprises' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Werner Enterprises stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Werner Enterprises' open interest, investors have to compare it to Werner Enterprises' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Werner Enterprises is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Werner. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Werner Enterprises cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Werner Enterprises' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Werner Enterprises' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Werner Enterprises simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Werner Enterprises are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Werner Enterprises prices get older. Werner Enterprises Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Werner Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 34.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Werner Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Werner Enterprises' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Werner Enterprises Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Werner Enterprises | Werner Enterprises Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Werner Enterprises Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Werner Enterprises' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Werner Enterprises' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.13 and 36.35, respectively. We have considered Werner Enterprises' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Werner Enterprises stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Werner Enterprises stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2029 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0764 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5115 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.2 |
Predictive Modules for Werner Enterprises
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Werner Enterprises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Werner Enterprises' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Werner Enterprises
For every potential investor in Werner, whether a beginner or expert, Werner Enterprises' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Werner Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Werner. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Werner Enterprises' price trends.Werner Enterprises Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Werner Enterprises stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Werner Enterprises could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Werner Enterprises by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Werner Enterprises Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Werner Enterprises' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Werner Enterprises' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Werner Enterprises Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Werner Enterprises stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Werner Enterprises shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Werner Enterprises stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Werner Enterprises entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 11981.51 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.44) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.39) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.34) |
Werner Enterprises Risk Indicators
The analysis of Werner Enterprises' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Werner Enterprises' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting werner stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Variance | 2.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Werner Enterprises offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Werner Enterprises' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Werner Enterprises Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Werner Enterprises Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Werner Enterprises to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Werner Stock, please use our How to Invest in Werner Enterprises guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Werner Stock analysis
When running Werner Enterprises' price analysis, check to measure Werner Enterprises' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Werner Enterprises is operating at the current time. Most of Werner Enterprises' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Werner Enterprises' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Werner Enterprises' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Werner Enterprises to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Werner Enterprises' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Werner Enterprises. If investors know Werner will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Werner Enterprises listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | Dividend Share 0.55 | Earnings Share 1.76 | Revenue Per Share 51.811 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Werner Enterprises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Werner that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Werner Enterprises' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Werner Enterprises' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Werner Enterprises' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Werner Enterprises' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Werner Enterprises' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Werner Enterprises is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Werner Enterprises' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.