Zura Bio Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ZURA Stock | 6.45 0.13 2.06% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zura Bio Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 6.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.40. Zura Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zura Bio stock prices and determine the direction of Zura Bio Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Zura Bio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the rsi of Zura Bio's share price is below 20 . This usually means that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.18) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.76) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.78) | Wall Street Target Price 15.6 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.18) |
Using Zura Bio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Zura Bio Limited from the perspective of Zura Bio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Zura Bio using Zura Bio's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Zura using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Zura Bio's stock price.
Zura Bio Implied Volatility | 2.46 |
Zura Bio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Zura Bio Limited stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Zura Bio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Zura Bio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Zura Bio's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zura Bio Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 6.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.40. Zura Bio after-hype prediction price | USD 6.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zura Bio to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Zura Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Zura Bio's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Zura Bio's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Zura Bio stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Zura Bio's open interest, investors have to compare it to Zura Bio's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Zura Bio is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Zura. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Zura Bio Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Zura price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Zura using various technical indicators. When you analyze Zura charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Zura Bio Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Zura Bio's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 203 M | Current Value 213.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 78.5 M |
Zura Bio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Zura Bio Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 6.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zura Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zura Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Zura Bio Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Zura Bio | Zura Bio Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Zura Bio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Zura Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zura Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.35 and 12.36, respectively. We have considered Zura Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zura Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zura Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8213 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2361 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.053 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.4006 |
Predictive Modules for Zura Bio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zura Bio Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Zura Bio After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Zura Bio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Zura Bio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Zura Bio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Zura Bio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Zura Bio's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Zura Bio's historical news coverage. Zura Bio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.27 and 12.29, respectively. We have considered Zura Bio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Zura Bio is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Zura Bio Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Zura Bio Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Zura Bio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Zura Bio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Zura Bio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.99 | 6.01 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.45 | 6.28 | 2.64 |
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Zura Bio Hype Timeline
Zura Bio Limited is at this time traded for 6.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Zura is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.64%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.99%. The volatility of related hype on Zura Bio is about 40066.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.44. About 24.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of Zura Bio was at this time reported as 1.67. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.65. Zura Bio Limited had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zura Bio to cross-verify your projections.Zura Bio Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Zura Bio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Zura Bio's future price movements. Getting to know how Zura Bio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Zura Bio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASMB | Assembly Biosciences | (2.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.88 | (7.73) | 18.53 | |
| FHTX | Foghorn Therapeutics | 0.11 | 9 per month | 4.29 | 0.11 | 9.16 | (5.56) | 31.12 | |
| IMRX | Immuneering Corp | (1.14) | 7 per month | 8.71 | 0.02 | 8.12 | (7.44) | 67.18 | |
| SGMT | Sagimet Biosciences Series | 0.12 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.08 | (7.51) | 36.94 | |
| NAUT | Nautilus Biotechnology | 0.34 | 6 per month | 5.59 | 0.14 | 16.32 | (12.00) | 53.15 | |
| AARD | Aardvark Therapeutics Common | 0.18 | 6 per month | 4.38 | 0.07 | 9.25 | (8.28) | 36.39 | |
| ARCT | Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.53 | (7.02) | 57.84 | |
| PYXS | Pyxis Oncology | 3.06 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 17.05 | (15.41) | 70.66 | |
| ENTA | Enanta Pharmaceuticals | (0.60) | 10 per month | 2.69 | 0.07 | 5.67 | (4.04) | 15.79 | |
| TNYA | Tenaya Therapeutics | (0.07) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 9.02 | (11.04) | 51.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Zura Bio
For every potential investor in Zura, whether a beginner or expert, Zura Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zura Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zura. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zura Bio's price trends.Zura Bio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zura Bio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zura Bio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zura Bio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Zura Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zura Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zura Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zura Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zura Bio Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Zura Bio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Zura Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zura Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zura stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.94 | |||
| Variance | 35.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 26.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Zura Bio
The number of cover stories for Zura Bio depends on current market conditions and Zura Bio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Zura Bio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Zura Bio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Zura Bio Short Properties
Zura Bio's future price predictability will typically decrease when Zura Bio's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Zura Bio Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Zura Bio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Zura Bio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 176.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zura Bio to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Zura Bio. If investors know Zura will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Zura Bio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Zura Bio Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Zura that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Zura Bio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Zura Bio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Zura Bio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Zura Bio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Zura Bio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Zura Bio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Zura Bio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.